015
ACUS11 KWNS 160641
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 160640
SDZ000-NDZ000-160845-

Mesoscale Discussion 1310
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0140 AM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

Areas affected...parts of southern North Dakota and northern South
Dakota

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 421...422...

Valid 160640Z - 160845Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 421, 422
continues.

SUMMARY...An organizing cluster of storms may continue to pose a
risk for strong to severe gusts, mostly south of the I-90 corridor
of central North Dakota and adjacent portions of South Dakota
through 2-3 AM CDT, before perhaps weakening.

DISCUSSION...The strongest convection has become better organized in
a small cluster now propagating across and east-northeast of the
Lemmon SD vicinity around 45 kt.  This includes an evolving
mesoscale circulation with 50-60 kt westerly rear inflow around its
southern periphery, at least around 7-12 thousand+ feet based on
recent radar imagery from KBIS.  Based on this motion, the complex
would pass just south of Jamestown ND by around 10Z.  However, more
favorably moist and potentially unstable updraft inflow, might
remain focused on the nose of a 30-40 kt southerly 850 mb jet, and
trend more elevated and out of the southwest with time, as
near-surface easterly inflow becomes gradually more stable across
the central into eastern Dakotas.  This may contribute to a gradual
southeastward propagation of stronger lingering convection into
northern South Dakota, but it is not clear how long this will
continue to be accompanied by an appreciable risk for strong to
severe surface gusts.

..Kerr.. 06/16/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...

LAT...LON   46890202 47050050 47169885 45919829 45099928 45330047
            45290162 45530268 45940220 46890202

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN