847
ACUS11 KWNS 020417
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 020417
OKZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-020615-

Mesoscale Discussion 2426
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1017 PM CST Sun Nov 01 2026

Areas affected...East-central New Mexico into the western
Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles

Concerning...Tornado Watch 700...

Valid 020417Z - 020615Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 700 continues.

SUMMARY...Tornadoes and severe wind gusts will continue to be a
concern into the overnight hours as convection moves into far
eastern New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle/South Plains.

DISCUSSION...Lightning activity has increased with a small linear
segment near Tucumcari, NM. This has occurred as convection has
deepened within the axis of greater MUCAPE along the TX/NM border.
To the east of this activity, moisture has remained in the low 60s F
with temperatures in the Texas Panhandle actually increasing by a
degree or two F over the last hour. This modest warming coupled with
cooling aloft has allowed destabilization to spread eastward this
evening. Linear segments that can intensify will move within an
environment of strong low-level shear--VAD data from KFDX and KAMA
show 0-500 m SRH of 300-350 m2/s2. QLCS and perhaps isolated
supercell tornadoes are possible into the overnight hours. Strong to
severe wind gusts can also be expected even with modest convection
given the strength of the low-level flow field. The main uncertainty
is how far south stronger convection can form as mid-level ascent is
weaker with southward extent.

..Wendt.. 11/02/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...ABQ...

LAT...LON   33510433 33880504 34230504 34550476 35210402 35700382
            36590298 36690203 36430155 35930141 35520146 35170170
            34820209 34140279 33740317 33510433

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-125 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN