945
ACUS11 KWNS 272209
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 272208
TXZ000-280015-

Mesoscale Discussion 0577
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0508 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

Areas affected...central to northeast Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 272208Z - 280015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Attempts at convective initiation have been recently noted
within a volatile convective environment. While confidence in storm
coverage is limited, thunderstorms that can become established will
likely pose a threat for severe hail, wind, and perhaps a tornado.

DISCUSSION...Latest GOES imagery shows a band of agitated cumulus
along a weak trough axis from the DFW area southward to the
northwest of Austin, TX. At least one deeper convective tower with
occasional lightning strikes is noted across central TX. Very weak
forcing for ascent casts uncertainty on whether or not this attempt
at sustained convection will succeed or whether additional attempts
will be made through early evening. However, latest high-res
guidance continues to suggest at least a few discrete cells could
develop and migrate eastward across eastern and northeast TX through
late evening. If sustained convection can occur, the downstream
environment will be favorable for the development of robust
supercells capable of producing large (to perhaps very large) hail
and severe gusts. Some tornado threat may also emerge across
northeast TX where low-level wind shear is slightly stronger (around
100 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH per the KSHV VWP and recent mesoanalysis
estimates). Convective trends will continue to be monitored and
watch issuance may be needed if sustained deep convection becomes
increasingly likely.

..Moore/Mosier.. 04/27/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT...

LAT...LON   30849873 31179883 31559864 33229644 33459606 33519569
            33499527 33259490 32869466 32439453 32089454 31699468
            31439496 31129577 30809665 30589732 30499786 30549826
            30649850 30849873

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN