503
ACUS11 KWNS 161850
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161849
IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-162045-

Mesoscale Discussion 1312
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0149 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

Areas affected...southeast SD and northeast NE

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 161849Z - 162045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated large hail and localized severe gust threat
may persist through mid-afternoon. Greater coverage of storms, with
increasing severe hail/wind threats, is anticipated in the late
afternoon to early evening. Area is being monitored for a severe
thunderstorm watch, with timing and spatial extent the primary
near-term uncertainties.

DISCUSSION...A few storms, likely rooted near 700 mb, have formed
near the surface cold front. With appreciable MLCIN still present in
the warm-moist sector ahead of this, convection may struggle to
propagate off the boundary. Most CAM guidance has been too slow with
this initial development, rendering uncertainty regarding the
overall spatial extent of severe potential over the next couple
hours. Surface dew points have largely mixed into the upper 50s to
low 60s to the east-southeast of this activity, with richer
boundary-layer dew points and CU development confined to central NE
westward. Despite the uncertainty on storm coverage, low to
mid-level wind profiles are sufficient for transient, high-based
supercells.

..Grams/Hart.. 06/16/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...LBF...

LAT...LON   43819868 43989814 43949746 43819682 43609646 43019646
            42609659 42099699 41989717 41869806 42139872 42929908
            43269909 43819868

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN