349
ACUS11 KWNS 241815
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241815
SCZ000-GAZ000-242015-

Mesoscale Discussion 1720
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0115 PM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026

Areas affected...Portions of the Georgia and Carolina Coast

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 241815Z - 242015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...The potential for damaging downburst winds is gradually
increasing across portions of the Georgia and Carolina coast. This
threat is expected to remain sufficiently sporadic and transient to
preclude watch issuance.

DISCUSSION...Convection has been gradually increasing along the
NC/SC coast along a weak cold front as temperatures continue to warm
into the low 90s under partly cloudy skies. Continued ascent along
the cold front and along a sharpening sea-breeze boundary through
late afternoon will promote additional thunderstorms in the coming
hours. Deep-layer wind shear across the region remains very weak
(per regional VWPs), and will continue to predominantly favor
pulse-convection and perhaps poorly organized clusters. However,
filtered daytime heating is contributing to low-level lapse rates on
the order of 8 C/km through the lowest 1-2 km that may promote
downdraft accelerations near the ground. Consequently, some
potential will exist for strong downbursts (featuring max winds of
40-60 mph) through late afternoon. This potential will be greatest
where dewpoint depressions can be maximized - namely across far
eastern GA into southern SC where more limited cloud cover has
allowed temperatures to warm into the 90s with ~20 F dewpoint
depressions. Given the isolated and transient nature of the threat,
watch issuance is not expected.

..Moore/Smith.. 07/24/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...

LAT...LON   32368028 32138066 31908087 31878118 32008167 32328183
            32698182 33068169 33528122 33878059 33997989 34037938
            33987901 33867870 33697868 33487895 33087913 32607988
            32368028

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH