470
ACUS11 KWNS 161547
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161546
MEZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-161815-

Mesoscale Discussion 1632
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1046 AM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

Areas affected...parts of northern Vermont...northern and central
New Hampshire...western Maine

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 161546Z - 161815Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...A developing band of showers and thunderstorms may become
increasingly accompanied by strong to potentially damaging wind
gusts while overspreading the region through noon to 3 pm EDT.

DISCUSSION...A vigorous mid-level trough is in the process of
digging across the St. Lawrence Valley into the northeast,
accompanied by a more significant, reinforcing cold front now
already overspreading the higher terrain of northwestern Maine
through the international border vicinity south of Montreal.

In the wake of preceding low-level cooling and drying, the
boundary-layer along and ahead of the front across New England
remains only modestly moist.  However, forcing for ascent along the
front, near the leading edge of stronger mid-level cooling
(characterized by 500 mb temperatures falling into and below the
-16-18 C range) has been sufficient to support a narrow band of
modestly deeper convective development capable of producing
occasional lightning.

With at least some further boundary-layer warming, mixing and
steepening of low-level lapse rates, it appears that this activity
could increase and intensify at least a bit further while
overspreading the northern Vermont/New Hampshire into western Maine
vicinity through 16-19Z.  Coincident with strengthening mid-level
wind fields, perhaps including in excess of 50 kt to near and below
the 700 mb level, convection may increasing aid the downward
transport of stronger momentum to the surface, accompanied by
potentially damaging surface wind gusts.

..Kerr/Guyer.. 07/16/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GYX...BTV...

LAT...LON   44297299 45007270 44997206 45057092 44726974 43776931
            43386997 43507111 43807208 44297299

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH