Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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ACUS11 KWNS 172143
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 172143
KSZ000-OKZ000-172315-
Mesoscale Discussion 1335
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0443 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025
Areas affected...Parts of south-central Kansas into far
north-central Oklahoma
Concerning...Tornado Watch 429...
Valid 172143Z - 172315Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 429 continues.
SUMMARY...Parts of south-central Kansas is the most favorable
corridor for a couple supercell tornadoes during the next couple
hours -- within Tornado Watch 429.
DISCUSSION...A semi-discrete supercell is evolving just north of a
remnant outflow boundary intersection over far south-central KS this
afternoon. Along and north of the boundary, an earlier sheltered
boundary layer (with backed easterly surface winds) has destabilized
substantially, with temperatures in the lower/middle 80s amid upper
60s/lower 70s dewpoints. This strongly unstable surface-based air,
combined with around 50 kt of effective shear, will favor
intensification of the ongoing supercell and additional cells that
develop on its flanks. Additionally, a large clockwise-curved
hodograph (200-250 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH) per earlier VWP data and
mesoanalysis will support a couple supercell tornadoes with any
sustained supercells in this corridor over the next couple hours.
..Weinman.. 06/17/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...
LAT...LON 36929757 37209821 37399820 37539802 37619737 37539672
37349642 36929648 36859695 36929757
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN