Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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Issued by NWS
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ACUS11 KWNS 141720
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141720
MEZ000-NHZ000-MAZ000-VTZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-141945-
Mesoscale Discussion 1667
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1220 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025
Areas affected...VT/NH and western ME into eastern NY...western
MA/CT...northeast PA...and northern NJ
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 141720Z - 141945Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Storms capable of localized damaging winds are possible
this afternoon.
DISCUSSION...Convection is gradually deepening early this afternoon
from western VT/ME into eastern NY and northeast PA. Continued
heating of a very moist airmass will result in MLCAPE increasing
above 1500 J/kg, and storm coverage is expected to increase with
time as a midlevel shortwave trough over western PA approaches the
region. Weak midlevel lapse rates will tend to limit updraft
intensity, but modestly enhanced mid/upper-level flow and effective
shear of 25-30 kt could support occasional storm organization.
Relatively large PW (generally 1.5 - 1.8 inches) may result in
localized downbursts with any stronger cells, while a few
outflow-driven clusters could evolve with time. The strongest
cells/clusters may be capable of producing localized damaging winds
through the afternoon.
..Dean/Mosier.. 07/14/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...
CTP...
LAT...LON 41517675 41807718 42147708 42557614 43477414 45097322
45227158 46866999 47106872 46856832 45636945 45176986
44547034 43827094 42897169 42347226 41497320 40547430
40797495 41127576 41517675
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH