206
ACUS11 KWNS 232235
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 232234
NMZ000-TXZ000-240030-

Mesoscale Discussion 2406
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0534 PM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026

Areas affected...south-central New Mexico and far west Texas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 696...

Valid 232234Z - 240030Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 696
continues.

SUMMARY...Threat for large hail, severe wind, and perhaps a brief
tornado continues within WW696.

DISCUSSION...Supercells continue across southern New Mexico this
afternoon, with several splits and supercell mergers ongoing. VAD
profiles from ABX and EPZ depict linear and elongated hodographs,
supporting continued splitting supercells. Winds aloft veer to
southwesterly just off the surface. Surface observations near the
Rio Grande Valley are more southeasterly. If the
supercells/supercell clusters west of El Paso can deviate more
strongly eastward, a slight increase in low-level SRH and potential
for a tornado where dew points are near 50 F. Moisture becomes more
limited with eastern and northern extent where dew points are more
around the mid 40s F. Overall, the main threats will likely remain
large hail and severe wind.

..Thornton.. 10/23/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...

LAT...LON   32660817 33340829 33580814 33770771 33840741 33860699
            33830664 33770638 33610614 33270585 32740576 32210572
            31670578 31490582 31410589 31260682 31280722 31310767
            31360808 32660817

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN