031
ACUS11 KWNS 060159
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 060159
TNZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-060400-

Mesoscale Discussion 0649
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0859 PM CDT Tue May 05 2026

Areas affected...North-central and Northeast Arkansas...Western
Tennessee...Far Northwest Mississippi

Concerning...Tornado Watch 184...

Valid 060159Z - 060400Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 184 continues.

SUMMARY...Severe storm development will be possible across parts of
north-central and northeast Arkansas over the next few hours. A
tornado threat, along with potential for large hail and severe wind
gusts will be possible. New watch issuance could be needed to the
east of WW 184, if cells can trend upward in intensity.

DISCUSSION...At the surface, a cold front is located in
north-central Arkansas, along which several cells are ongoing. So
far, these storms have remained mostly on the cool side of the
boundary and are elevated. However, short-term model forecasts
suggest that additional storms will develop over the next few hours
ahead of the front from central Arkansas northeastward into western
Tennessee. If this happens, then surface-based storms will become
likely. The latest WSR-88D VWP at Little Rock has 0-6 km shear near
75 knots with 0-3 km storm-relative helicity around 550 m2/s2. This
environment will be favorable for severe storms if if cell coverage
markedly increases late this evening as the HRRR suggests. Under
this scenario, new weather watch issuance would probably be needed
to the east of the current watch.

..Broyles/Hart.. 05/06/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK...

LAT...LON   35249346 35529332 35739287 35969152 36129024 36018954
            35848931 35578921 35278926 34948963 34789022 34519205
            34459287 34649322 34939341 35249346

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-125 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN