Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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964 ACUS11 KWNS 160330 SWOMCD SPC MCD 160330 NDZ000-160530- Mesoscale Discussion 1309 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1030 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025 Areas affected...western North Dakota Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 160330Z - 160530Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms continue to move east across Montana this evening. With time, these storms will move east into North Dakota posing a risk for damaging winds and isolated large hail. A watch will likely be needed shortly for portions of North Dakota. DISCUSSION...Multiple clusters of severe thunderstorms continue this evening across eastern Montana within a strongly sheared and very buoyant airmass. These thunderstorms, aided by large-scale ascent from a shortwave trough moving through, should continue to merge together and grow upscale into a large MCS that progresses east into portions of western North Dakota. The airmass ahead of this line across North Dakota remains strongly sheared, and as buoyant or greater than areas to the west. Thus, with most-unstable CAPE ranging from 1000 J/kg near the Canadian border to more than 3000 J/kg across the North Dakota/South Dakota border, thunderstorms should be able to persist east of Severe Thunderstorm Watch #418. A severe thunderstorm watch will be needed across portions of North Dakota. ..Marsh/Smith.. 06/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BIS... LAT...LON 45960400 49030398 48989986 45989987 45960400 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN