764
ACUS11 KWNS 302057
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 302056
AZZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-302300-

Mesoscale Discussion 2421
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0356 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

Areas affected...portions of southern Nevada into western/central
Arizona

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 302056Z - 302300Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated risk for marginally severe hail, strong to
locally severe wind gusts, and perhaps a landspout may accompany the
strongest storms this afternoon/evening. Watch issuance is not
expected.

DISCUSSION...Convective coverage has gradually increased through 21
UTC ahead of an approaching mid-level shortwave trough evident over
southern California in recent water vapor satellite imagery. While
widespread cloud cover has been prevalent across the region through
much of the day, filtered diurnal heating and dewpoints ranging from
the mid-50s to low-60s F are supporting weak to moderate buoyancy of
500-1000+ J/kg MLCAPE, which has been sufficient for the development
of a few relatively small and transiently stronger convective cores
through mid-afternoon.

Stronger mid/upper flow along the eastern periphery of the
aforementioned shortwave trough (~40 kts at 8-9 km MSL per the
FSX/IWA VWPs) and modest mid-level lapse rates around 7 C/km may
support modestly greater organization of developing updrafts and
isolated marginally severe hail through mid afternoon. Isolated
strong to locally severe wind gusts may also occur, primarily where
stronger heating has steepened low-level lapse rates. Lastly, some
potential for a brief landspout may exist given pockets of stronger
low-level buoyancy overlapping ambient surface vorticity,
particularly in the NV/AZ border vicinity where latest objective
analysis depicts NSTP values of 1-2. Given the overall expectations
for any severe risk to remain limited in magnitude and spatially
isolated, watch issuance is not expected.

..Chalmers/Smith.. 10/30/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...VEF...

LAT...LON   36351503 36391469 36241442 35911410 35341365 34831304
            34411222 34251163 34021101 33781065 33441059 33241070
            32971128 32991212 33141292 34121418 34941510 35591540
            36081529 36351503

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN