442
ACUS11 KWNS 160441
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 160440
KSZ000-160645-

Mesoscale Discussion 1152
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1140 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

Areas affected...Portions of western KS

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 160440Z - 160645Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated hail and gusty winds may occur with thunderstorms
over the next couple of hours, but watch issuance is not expected.

DISCUSSION...A modest strengthening of the low-level jet this
evening per recent VWPs from KDDC has encouraged isolated convection
to develop along/near a weak surface trough/wind shift across parts
of western KS. While the 00Z DDC observed sounding showed minimal
instability, a modest increase in low-level moisture has occurred
over the past few hours per recent mesoanalysis estimates. This is
supporting up to 1000-1500 J/kg of MUCAPE across a small portion of
western KS. Around 20-30 kt of southerly low-level flow veers
strongly and increases with height through mid/upper levels, which
is aiding strong deep-layer shear of 40-50+ kt. One updraft has
matured into a supercell across far southwest KS, and should
continue to pose an isolated large hail threat in the near term.
Other cells farther east may also attempt to strengthen, but weaker
instability with eastward extent may tend to limit the number of
stronger cells that can mature. Regardless, some hail and gusty wind
threat will likely continue for the next couple of hours. But, the
overall limited spatial/temporal extent of the severe threat tonight
is expected to remain too isolated for watch issuance.

..Gleason.. 06/16/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...

LAT...LON   37980200 38530109 38840028 38639994 38129983 37550050
            37160114 37180197 37980200

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN