609
ACUS11 KWNS 150434
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 150434
OKZ000-150600-

Mesoscale Discussion 1294
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1134 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Areas affected...Parts of central/northeast OK

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 417...

Valid 150434Z - 150600Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 417
continues.

SUMMARY...A severe threat will continue into the early overnight.

DISCUSSION...A small storm cluster is propagating
south-southeastward across central OK late this evening. A couple of
embedded supercells are ongoing within this cluster, with additional
development noted along the western portion of the trailing outflow.
Despite some nocturnal cooling, instability remains large across the
region, with MLCAPE of 1500-3000 J/kg near/south of the outflow.

Effective shear of 30-40 kt will continue to support organized
convection into the early overnight. Increasing low-level flow (as
noted on the KTLX VWP) may continue to aid in development near/north
of the outflow boundary/gust front, with some backbuilding possible.
The stronger embedded cores remain capable of producing large hail,
with some increase in severe-wind potential possible with time if
any further upscale growth can occur.

..Dean.. 06/15/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...

LAT...LON   35199820 35329843 35559861 35919862 36059860 36259810
            35959706 36249641 36759620 36759569 36629546 36249531
            35769552 35469583 35369604 35329622 35049694 35019748
            35059790 35199820

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN