965
ACUS11 KWNS 180335
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 180334
OKZ000-180500-

Mesoscale Discussion 1341
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1034 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

Areas affected...Northern/Central Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 431...

Valid 180334Z - 180500Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 431
continues.

SUMMARY...Severe winds are expected to become more widespread across
portions of northern and central Oklahoma over the next few hours.
Gusts in excess of 60-70kt are anticipated.

DISCUSSION...Leading edge of large-scale support, associated with
the central High Plains short-wave trough, appears to be influencing
convection over northern OK this evening. LLJ is strengthening in
response to this feature and VAD Profile from TLX supports this with
very strong 0-3km SRH. 00z sounding from OUN exhibited around 3000
J/kg MLCAPE, but some capping was evident around 2km. Over the last
few hours, convection has gradually expanded in coverage across
northwestern OK and this activity is growing upscale rapidly within
a very buoyant, and steep lapse rate environment. 2km capping favors
MCS storm mode, and over the next hour or so a more pronounced MCS
will evolve over north central OK. As this occurs, southern line
segment may begin to surge which will likely generate severe winds,
possibly in excess of 60kt. 50+kt gusts have already been reported
and continued maturation should lead to potentially significant
gusts, especially north of I-40.

..Darrow.. 06/18/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...

LAT...LON   36719771 36759640 35819629 35519790 36719771

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...75-90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN