454
ACUS11 KWNS 221949
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221949
COZ000-222145-

Mesoscale Discussion 2005
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0249 PM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025

Areas affected...the Front Range and vicinity

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 221949Z - 222145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...An increase in storm coverage is forecast after about 21Z,
with storms moving east/southeast off the higher terrain. Localized
marginal hail or strong gusts may occur.

DISCUSSION...Destabilization continues this afternoon in a
post-frontal regime with areas of heating. North to northeast
surface winds have brought mid to upper 50s F dewpoints into the
area, resulting in 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE. Visible satellite imagery
shows CU fields developing, though partially obscured by mid and
high level clouds. These clouds are associated with a minor
disturbance rounding the upper ridge, suggesting some degree of
ascent aloft.

As convection over the higher terrain grows later this afternoon,
modest northwest flow aloft and peak heating should allow for a few
cells to persist into the plains. Temperatures aloft are not
particularly cool, nor is shear very strong. As such, marginal hail
is possible. An eventual aggregation of storms/outflows may develop
closer to 00Z, with perhaps locally strong to severe gusts. Overall
coverage and intensity of severe is not expected to necessitate a
watch.

..Jewell/Gleason.. 08/22/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU...

LAT...LON   38650578 39630559 40350524 40360487 40140444 39660428
            39190419 38720433 38350460 38210508 38250548 38650578

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN