302
ACUS11 KWNS 061018
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 061018
TXZ000-061245-

Mesoscale Discussion 0651
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0518 AM CDT Wed May 06 2026

Areas affected...Parts of the TX Hill Country and Edwards Plateau

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 061018Z - 061245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe storms may develop near or after
dawn.

DISCUSSION...GPS PW values near Del Rio have substantially increased
from near 1 inch at 00 UTC to above 1.5 inches as of 10 UTC, with
surface dewpoints increasing through the low 70s F. A storm has
recently developed northwest of Del Rio across eastern Terrell
County, and this increase in deeper low-level moisture beneath
relatively steep midlevel lapse rates may yield additional storm
development near a weak surface front draped across the TX Hill
Country vicinity. MUCAPE of 2000 J/kg, strong (60+ kt) deep-layer
shear, and elongated hodographs are conditionally supportive of
supercells capable of producing large to very large hail, if deep
convection can mature within this regime.

In the absence of substantial large-scale ascent, storm coverage
through the morning is uncertain. However, given the favorable
environment, watch issuance is possible if short-term trends support
development of persistent intense storms.

..Dean/Mosier.. 05/06/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...MAF...

LAT...LON   29880192 31040181 31340064 31339891 31299841 30979815
            30369818 29989833 29809843 29609867 29519893 29429940
            29329999 29240049 29240086 29880192

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN