649
ACUS11 KWNS 170907
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 170906
KSZ000-OKZ000-171100-

Mesoscale Discussion 1327
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0406 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

Areas affected...parts of south central Kansas...north
central/northeastern Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 425...

Valid 170906Z - 171100Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 425
continues.

SUMMARY...Strong to severe wind gusts will probably continue into
daybreak, with a cluster of thunderstorms overspreading the central
Kansas and Oklahoma state border vicinity. Beyond that, the cluster
of storms is expected to weaken, but how fast remains unclear.

DISCUSSION...A compact but still strong surface cold pool, which
intensified across the Hays KS vicinity around 06-07Z (including
2-hourly surface pressure rises in excess of 6 mb), accelerated
southeasterly propagation to 35-40 kt shortly thereafter.  This is
generally being maintained across and southwest of the Wichita KS
vicinity, and, at its current movement, could approach the Tulsa,
Chandler and Enid OK vicinities by around 12Z.  However, the extent
to which it maintains intensity remains unclear, as the southerly
low-level jet across the high plains likely undergoes at least some
diurnal weakening.  Mid-level warming (around 700 mb) is also
ongoing across much of the central and southern Great Plains, which
will tend to suppress convective development, once forcing for
ascent associated with low-level warm advection weakens.  However,
the risk for strong to severe wind gusts will probably continue, as
long as convection is able to maintain the vigorous cold pool.

..Kerr.. 06/17/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...

LAT...LON   37629794 38119698 37399590 36619596 36339805 37379888
            37629794

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN