435
ACUS11 KWNS 151955
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151955
NJZ000-NYZ000-PAZ000-152100-

Mesoscale Discussion 1626
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0255 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

Areas affected...portions of northeastern Pennsylvania into New
Jersey

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 151955Z - 152100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A few damaging gusts or instances of hail may occur over
the next few hours. A WW issuance is unlikely.

DISCUSSION...MRMS mosaic radar imagery shows convective initiation
over the higher terrain of the Appalachians. Surface temperatures
have reached the mid to upper 90s at multiple locations per surface
observations, suggesting that convective temperatures have been
breached (per 18Z RAP forecast soundings). 19Z mesoanalysis depicts
over 2000 J/kg MLCAPE in place amid 40-60 kts of effective bulk
shear as a 500 mb jet max overspreads upstate NY. These ambient
conditions would support damaging gusts (perhaps one or two
exceeding 50 kts) and perhaps an instance of hail if a storm could
mature. Nonetheless, current visible satellite depict a thick belt
of smoke overspreading the Hudson Valley into the northeast, which
may negatively impact updraft strength to a degree. As such, it is
unclear how strong these storms may become. Given the conditional
potential for sparse damaging gusts, a Severe Thunderstorm Watch
issuance is not currently anticipated, though convective trends will
continue to be monitored.

..Squitieri/Mosier.. 07/15/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...BGM...CTP...

LAT...LON   41837761 41437525 40947432 40527405 40087407 39817444
            39937515 40187590 40527652 40967717 41437761 41837761

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN