130
ACUS11 KWNS 140709
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 140708
KSZ000-140915-

Mesoscale Discussion 1282
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0208 AM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Areas affected...parts of western into central Kansas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 413...

Valid 140708Z - 140915Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 413
continues.

SUMMARY...There appears potential for merging outflow to support an
increase in thunderstorm development and intensity, east of Garden
City and north of Dodge City between 3-5 AM CDT.  This could be
accompanied by a continuing risk for strong to severe surface gusts
through daybreak, and it is possible a new severe weather watch will
be needed.

DISCUSSION...The south-southeastward propagating cluster out of
northeast Colorado and southwestern Nebraska still appears
accompanied by a notable surface cold pool, including 2-hourly
surface pressure rises near or in excess of 4 mb, while 2-hourly
rises near 3 mb have been observed with the smaller eastward
propagating cluster to the south.  Both clusters are being
maintained by modestly strong low-level inflow of unstable air, with
the southern cluster supported by better low-level moisture and
potential instability, along a remnant baroclinic zone beneath warm
and capping elevated mixed-layer air.  A meso-beta scale cyclonic
circulation has also recently been evident with the southern
cluster, accompanied by strong westerly rear inflow in excess of
50-60 kt around 9-10 thousand feet AGL.

The more vigorous convective development with the northern
convective cluster has been contracting in size, and the influence
of the increased mid-level inhibition with continued gradual
boundary-layer cooling remains unclear.  However, a gust to 49 kt
has recently been observed at Goodland, along the southward
advancing gust front, which may overtake the southern cluster east
of Garden City/north of Dodge City between 08-10Z.

It is possible that this could contribute to the re-intensification
of convection, with a tendency to propagate east-southeastward along
the baroclinic  zone, near/north of Dodge City and Medicine Lodge,
toward the Hutchinson/Wichita vicinities through daybreak.  Despite
being embedded within generally light westerly deep-layer mean flow
on the order of 10 kt, thermodynamic profiles characterized by
seasonably high boundary layer moisture content and steep
lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates may remain conducive to
continuing strong surface cold pool development with potential for
strong to severe surface gusts.

..Kerr.. 06/14/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...

LAT...LON   37940164 38310159 38920187 39180161 39280075 39639989
            38859851 37779801 37179953 37770086 37940164

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN