Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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719
ACUS11 KWNS 190419
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 190418
TNZ000-KYZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ILZ000-ARZ000-190545-
Mesoscale Discussion 1361
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1118 PM CDT Wed Jun 18 2025
Areas affected...portions of eastern Arkansas into western
Tennessee...far southwestern Kentucky...and far northern Mississippi
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 190418Z - 190545Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...An instance or two of marginally severe hail is possible.
A WW issuance is not expected.
DISCUSSION...Multiple multicellular clusters have fluctuated in
intensity over the past couple of hours, with MRMS MESH data
suggesting that isolated instances of marginally severe hail may be
occurring. These storms are developing ahead of an approaching 500
mb impulse, where residual buoyancy (1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE)
coinciding with 35 kts of effective bulk shear (04Z mesoanalysis),
may support a couple instances of marginally severe hail over the
next couple of hours. Even so, the severe threat should be isolated
enough to preclude a WW issuance.
..Squitieri/Smith.. 06/19/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...OHX...PAH...MEG...
LAT...LON 34609103 35759089 36988984 37078927 36888866 36518816
35738798 35188809 34678873 34458959 34609103
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN