334
ACUS11 KWNS 130036
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 130036
KSZ000-OKZ000-130130-

Mesoscale Discussion 2291
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0736 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

Areas affected...portions of southern Kansas into far northern
Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 130036Z - 130130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...The risk for severe wind and hail will increase over the
next few hours as storms increase in coverage and traverse a surface
boundary over southern KS. A few significant severe wind/hail events
may occur with the strongest storms. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch
will be considered in the short term.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms are rapidly increasing in coverage and
intensity along a surface baroclinic boundary. These storms are
expected to propagate eastward along the boundary over the next
several hours, where ample buoyancy and vertical wind shear are
present (i.e. 3000 J/kg MLCAPE and 50 kts of effective bulk shear,
respectively). Supercells and multicells should be the main storm
mode, at least initially. However, if storms can merge, then a
cold-pool-driven MCS may manifest. Given 8+ C/km mid-level lapse
rates present (per the 00Z DDC observed sounding), supercell
structures may produce 2+ inch diameter hail, with 75+ mph gusts
possible with multicell structures or especially an MCS.

..Squitieri/Smith.. 09/13/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...

LAT...LON   37859887 37849689 37649582 37309561 37029581 36849654
            36809733 36869791 37059845 37859887

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN