359
ACUS11 KWNS 141857
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141857
NEZ000-KSZ000-SDZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-142030-

Mesoscale Discussion 1286
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0157 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Areas affected...Eastern Wyoming...northern Colorado...and portions
of eastern Nebraska and southeastern South Dakota

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 141857Z - 142030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...A severe thunderstorm watch may be needed this afternoon
and evening across portions of the Central High Plains in
anticipation of severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and
damaging winds.

DISCUSSION...While surface mesoanalsyis indicates lingering
convective inhibition across portions of the Colorado and Wyoming
High Plains, heating across the higher terrain has resulted in
surface temperatures reaching the lower 80s F with several attempts
at thunderstorm initiation. As the boundary layer continues to mix
and destabilize, the expectation is that storms will move from the
higher terrain into the high plains of Colorado and Wyoming where
better mixing ratios of 12-13 g/kg are present. Relatively meager
deep-layer shear of 20-30 kts will limit overall convective
organization, but steep mid-level lapse rates and deep, well-mixed
boundary layer profiles will support a large hail and damaging wind
threat -- especially with any local convective organization into
bowing segments.

..Halbert/Thompson.. 06/14/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...GLD...BOU...CYS...BYZ...RIW...

LAT...LON   44980477 44990625 44980705 44970750 44110697 43250641
            42660597 41940547 41220521 40520503 39830478 39750417
            39760333 39830244 39990203 40270206 42520290 44970413
            44980477

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN