772
ACUS11 KWNS 050602
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 050601
ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-050800-

Mesoscale Discussion 0644
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0101 AM CDT Tue May 05 2026

Areas affected...Northeast OK into northwest AR and far southwest MO

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 050601Z - 050800Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Strong to locally severe storms will remain possible
overnight.

DISCUSSION...An elevated storm cluster has recently shown some signs
of organization across northeast OK, with convection increasing
along both a developing cold pool and gust front, and within a warm
advection regime near the OK/MO/AR border region. This cluster is
being aided by a strong low-level jet, which should help to maintain
this cluster as it moves southeastward overnight.

Steep midlevel lapse rates (as observed on regional 00Z soundings),
MUCAPE of near/above 1000 J/kg, and moderate effective shear will
support some hail potential with the strongest embedded updrafts,
though the ongoing cluster/linear mode may mitigate hail potential
to some extent. Severe wind potential is also uncertain, due to the
elevated nature of the ongoing convection. However, given the
presence of a surface cold pool and sharp pressure rises (2-3
mb/hour) behind the gust front noted on Mesonet observations in
northeast OK, locally damaging wind could also accompany this system
as it moves southeastward.

..Dean/Mosier.. 05/05/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...TSA...ICT...

LAT...LON   37099541 36769396 36279245 35969268 35609313 35379404
            35729464 36029506 36249525 36699553 37099541

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN