Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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ACUS11 KWNS 240358
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 240358
KSZ000-240500-
Mesoscale Discussion 1719
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1058 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026
Areas affected...portions of north-central into northeastern Kansas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 240358Z - 240500Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...An instance or two of severe hail may accompany one of the
stronger storms over the next couple of hours. However, any severe
threat that manages to materialize should remain sparse and short
lived.
DISCUSSION...Convection has gradually intensified along the terminus
of a strengthening low-level jet, where 850 mb warm-air-advection
and isentropic ascent are maximized. Latest MRMS mosaic MESH data
suggests that some of the stronger embedded cells may be producing
hail approaching severe criteria. Nonetheless, as these storms
progress eastward, they should zonally outpace the low-level jet
axis and accompanying MUCAPE field (exceeding 500 J/kg). Therefore,
the expectation is for the severe hail threat to remain sparse at
best, as well as short lived.
..Squitieri/Mosier.. 07/24/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...EAX...TOP...ICT...GID...
LAT...LON 39289897 39539800 39599639 39259531 38949507 38759525
38699585 38639643 38649711 38839806 39289897
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN