243
ACUS11 KWNS 060731
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 060731
KSZ000-OKZ000-060930-

Mesoscale Discussion 0146
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0131 AM CST Fri Mar 06 2026

Areas affected...Parts of northern OK into south-central/southeast
KS

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 14...

Valid 060731Z - 060930Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 14
continues.

SUMMARY...At least a localized severe threat may continue through
the early morning hours.

DISCUSSION...An earlier tornadic supercell has recently weakened
east of Wichita, due to increasing CINH and decreasing low-level
moisture quality with northeastward extent. Farther southwest, a
small bowing segment has evolved from an earlier supercell cluster
across north-central OK. The nocturnal increase in CINH should
eventually lead to a weakening trend with this cluster as well, but
given its current level of organization and very strong low-level
flow noted on the KVNX and KICT VWPs, localized severe gusts and
perhaps a brief tornado may accompany this cluster as it moves into
south-central KS. Gusty to locally severe winds will also continue
to be possible with this cluster even if it begins to decay.

Otherwise, the environment remains conditionally favorable for
supercells, but increasing low-level stability should tend to
mitigate this threat with time. However, some threat for hail and/or
a brief tornado cannot be ruled out if any additional supercells can
evolve within the ongoing convection.

..Dean.. 03/06/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...

LAT...LON   36459839 37149791 38059734 38349673 38439625 38349592
            37989575 37189614 36499683 36249738 36269801 36459839

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN