852
ACUS11 KWNS 232048
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 232048
SDZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-232245-

Mesoscale Discussion 2326
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0348 PM CDT Wed Sep 23 2026

Areas affected...parts of southwestern North Dakota and adjacent
portions of southeastern Montana and northwestern South Dakota

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 232048Z - 232245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated strong thunderstorm development posing at least a
risk for severe hail appears increasingly probable by 4-6 PM MDT.
This may be maintained for a couple of hours late this afternoon
into evening.  Although this is still not anticipated to require a
severe weather watch, trends will be monitored.

DISCUSSION...Stronger boundary-layer warming and deeper mixing has
become focused near a weak surface low across the southeastern
Montana/western Dakotas border vicinity, with some
north-northeastward development still possible through late
afternoon.  Near the interface of this environment, and a narrow
corridor of better low-level moisture return to the north/east, it
appears that boundary-layer destabilization may maximize around the
Dickinson, ND vicinity by 22-00Z.

Aided by lift associated with a corresponding focused area of
stronger low-level warm advection, as low-amplitude mid-level
troughing continues to overspread the region, it appears that
thunderstorms will initiate as remaining inhibition erodes.  Near
and just to the northwest of a strong southwesterly mid/upper jet
(including speeds on the order of 40-70 kt in the 500-700 mb layer),
updraft inflow of boundary-layer air characterized by CAPE up to
1000+ J/kg may support an evolving supercell structure.  As this
tends to propagate eastward, or east-southeastward, it may pose
primarily a risk for severe hail, with perhaps some potential for
locally damaging surface gusts and/or a brief tornado, for at least
a couple of hours late this afternoon into evening.

..Kerr/Mosier.. 09/23/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...GGW...

LAT...LON   47460273 46080146 45570280 46370359 47070444 47460273

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN