077
ACUS11 KWNS 181801
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 181801
MEZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-MAZ000-NYZ000-PAZ000-181930-

Mesoscale Discussion 1320
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0101 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

Areas affected...parts of northeast Pennsylvania into New
York...Vermont...northern New Hampshire...western Maine

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 181801Z - 181930Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Strong, damaging gusts and a couple instances of hail
should occur with the stronger storms that can develop through the
afternoon. The severe threat should remain more isolated, and a WW
issuance is not currently expected.

DISCUSSION...Weak deep-layer flow and shear are present across
portions of the Hudson Valley into New England as a deep-layer
anticyclone persists over the Mid Atlantic. Nonetheless, strong
surface heating has boosted surface temperatures into the upper 80s
F, supporting both the approach of convective temperatures (hence
developing CU), and the achievement of widespread 2000+ J/kg MLCAPE.
Though quite modest, westerly upper-level flow along the northern
periphery of the anticyclone is supporting slight elongation of
upper-level hodographs. As such, a mix of pulse-single-cells and
perhaps a couple of multicells are likely this afternoon. Given some
dry air in the surface-850 mb and 700-500 mb layers (per latest RAP
forecast soundings), the stronger storms will be capable of
producing strong wind gusts (some damaging), and a couple instances
of hail may also be observed. However, the overall severe threat
should be more isolated. A WW issuance currently appears unlikely.

..Squitieri/Gleason.. 06/18/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...CTP...

LAT...LON   43167746 43607612 44477502 44887332 45017200 46117016
            45926948 45096980 43737181 41907426 41127593 40927669
            41117752 41737780 42447781 43167746