917
ACUS11 KWNS 202220
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 202220
KSZ000-210045-

Mesoscale Discussion 2093
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0520 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

Areas affected...from south-central into northeast Kansas...and
small parts of northwest Missouri and far southeast Nebraska

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 202220Z - 210045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Storms over south-central Kansas may persist into the
evening in some form and affects locations such as Wichita, Topeka
and eventually Kansas City. Strong wind gusts appear to be the
primary concern.

DISCUSSION...High-based storms have moved from the Panhandles into
south-central KS, with some strengthening noted as better moisture
is encountered. These storms are on the nose of a hot/low-level
lapse rates plume, and close to a warm front draped northwest to
southeast across KS.

Visible imagery shows other areas of towering CU just east of the
ongoing cluster as well, near the KS/OK border, with additional CU
fields into north-central KS in the warm advection zone.

As the low-level jet increases this evening, the warm front is
forecast to shift northward across KS and western MO. This will
result in destabilization across areas that are currently stable,
and, provide continued support for ascent via warm advection and
with outflow boundary interactions. Given the size of the ongoing
area of convection, trends will need to be monitored for further
strengthening or expansion of wind threat through the evening.

..Jewell/Hart.. 09/20/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...TOP...ICT...DDC...

LAT...LON   38839829 39429704 39619638 39509575 39369541 39149525
            38959518 38519507 38139522 37699601 37239723 37229814
            37339869 38009887 38579869 38839829