466
ACUS11 KWNS 240134
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 240133
KSZ000-OKZ000-240230-

Mesoscale Discussion 1718
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0833 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

Areas affected...portions of southwestern Kansas into far
northwestern Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 240133Z - 240230Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Some severe gust potential will continue for the next few
hours with the ongoing MCS, though the spatial coverage of the
severe threat should remain limited.

DISCUSSION...An MCS has matured over the past couple of hours as
clustering convection has traversed multiple baroclinic boundaries.
Convection within this line continues to appreciably mature while
the parent MCS progresses eastward amid residual buoyancy (1000-2000
J/kg MLCAPE) and 50 knots of effective bulk shear, as shown by the
latest mesoanalysis and the 00Z DDC observed sounding. Severe gusts
may occur over the next few hours. Furthermore, the low-level jet is
intensifying over this region, with the DDC observed sounding also
showing a large, curved low-level hodograph with 400 m2/s2 effective
SRH. Coincident with this observation, a leading-line QLCS
mesovortex was also observed via KDDC NEXRAD data in southern Ford
County. As such, a QLCS tornado also cannot be ruled out, especially
with any line-embedded circulations that traverse any of the
baroclinic boundaries in place. Nonetheless, the aforementioned
buoyancy axis is relatively narrow, and the MCS is expected to
outpace this axis shortly thereafter, so the severe threat should
remain spatiotemporally constrained.

..Squitieri/Mosier.. 07/24/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA...

LAT...LON   37020057 37810038 38170019 38399994 38459923 37959850
            37249816 36829827 36669866 36649960 36740028 37020057

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN