409
ACUS11 KWNS 152317
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 152317
AZZ000-CAZ000-160115-

Mesoscale Discussion 1628
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0617 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

Areas affected...portions of central and southern Arizona

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 152317Z - 160115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Sporadic strong to severe gusts are possible with
scattered thunderstorms into this evening. Organization potential is
very limited and a watch is unlikely.

DISCUSSION...As of 2310 UTC, regional radar imagery showered
scattered to numerous thunderstorms ongoing over portions of central
and southern AZ. Over the last 2 hours, storm coverage has slowly
increased over the northwestern and southeastern portions of the
Mogollon Rim. While very warm surface temperatures are present,
buoyancy is fairly limited owing to modest moisture and mid-level
lapse rates. Still, it remains sufficient for occasional stronger
multicell updrafts within the weak easterly flow aloft. This should
keep storm organization potential very limited. However, dry
sub-cloud layers could support sporadic severe gusts with the
stronger downdrafts.

Expectations are for storm coverage to continue to increase first
over the higher terrain of central and southeast AZ. Eventually
these storms should spread westward into the lower deserts this
evening with some damaging gusts potential. While some severe
potential is possible, the lack of broader storm organization amid
weak vertical shear and modest buoyancy should preclude the need for
a watch.

..Lyons/Guyer.. 07/15/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...VEF...

LAT...LON   31811048 32011195 32331292 32881370 33371421 34271424
            35031413 35211368 35101314 34961206 34481163 34291113
            34021046 32940985 32281012 31811048

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH