784
ACUS11 KWNS 092036
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 092036
NYZ000-PAZ000-OHZ000-MIZ000-092200-

Mesoscale Discussion 0688
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0336 PM CDT Sat May 09 2026

Areas affected...northern Ohio...western New York...and far
northwest Pennsylvania

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 092036Z - 092200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated to scattered damaging wind gusts possible this
afternoon and into the evening across parts of the eastern Great
Lakes.

DISCUSSION...A line of storms which first developed across eastern
Michigan along a cold front continues east this afternoon. As these
storms move off of Lake Erie/Ontario later this afternoon and into
the evening, some damaging wind gusts are possible, particularly
from far northeast Ohio into western New York. Instability is weak
due to limited moisture but low-level lapse rates are steep and
mid-level temperatures are cold. This may be sufficient to mix down
some of the stronger (40 to 50 knot) mid-level flow between 3 and 4
km (sampled by the CLE/IWX/DTX/BUF VWPs).

Some uncertainties remain given the cool Lake Erie/Ontario water
temperatures and the aforementioned weak instability. Therefore,
watch probabilities remain 40% for now and trends will be monitored.
If storm intensity remains consistent as the storms approach this
well-mixed airmass, a severe thunderstorm watch may need to be
considered.

..Bentley/Gleason.. 05/09/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...DTX...IWX...

LAT...LON   41208395 41278428 41748376 42658216 43338130 43538032
            43477915 43417803 42917810 42297831 41927864 41597932
            41208045 41048136 41048246 41088320 41208395

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN