431
ACUS11 KWNS 302049
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 302049
NDZ000-SDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-302245-

Mesoscale Discussion 2176
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0349 PM CDT Sun Aug 30 2026

Areas affected...western North Dakota...northwestern South
Dakota...adjacent portions of southeastern Montana and northeastern
Wyoming

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 636...

Valid 302049Z - 302245Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 636
continues.

SUMMARY...A developing line of thunderstorms across western North
Dakota may begin to become better organized with increasing
potential to produce strong to severe wind gusts while approaching
the Minot through Bismarck ND and Mobridge SD vicinity through 5-7
PM CDT (4-6 PM MDT).  Trends will continue to be monitored for the
possibility of a downstream severe weather watch.

DISCUSSION...A surface cold front, enhanced by convective outflow,
continues to strengthen while advancing east-southeastward into and
across the Montana/western Dakotas state border vicinity, with
2-hourly surface pressure rises on the order of 2-3+ mb evident in
20Z surface observations across a broad area of eastern Montana into
the lee of the Bighorn Mountains.  A downstream surface pressure
fall center appears to be developing near/southwest through west of
the Bismarck into Minot ND vicinity, ahead of increasing
thunderstorm development within the moderately unstable
boundary-layer near the pre-frontal surface trough axis.

Thunderstorm initiation across western North Dakota has been aided
by eroding inhibition, in the presence of continuing insolation and
the onset of weak cooling aloft.  As the leading edge of lower-level
cooling continues to overtake the surface trough, initially discrete
storm development may quickly grow upscale into at least a narrow
evolving line.  Although shear is initially modest, with further
strengthening, convection probably will better organize, accompanied
by evolving lower/mid-tropospheric meso-beta scale cyclonic
circulations with increasing potential to produce strong to severe
surface gusts.

..Kerr.. 08/30/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW...

LAT...LON   49070279 48660132 45740124 44880222 44430405 45050505
            46370444 47250416 47980416 48760357 49070279

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN