211
ACUS11 KWNS 010151
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 010151
TXZ000-NMZ000-010345-

Mesoscale Discussion 1814
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0851 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

Areas affected...parts of southeastern New Mexico into the Texas
South Plains

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 010151Z - 010345Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorm activity accompanied by strong to severe wind
gusts may be maintained into the 11 PM-1 AM CDT time frame across
parts of the Texas South Plains.  Barring more substantive
organization of the thunderstorm activity, a severe weather watch is
not anticipated, but trends will continue to monitored.

DISCUSSION...A notable surface cold pool generated by convection,
propagating off the Sangre de Cristo Mountains/Raton Mesa vicinity
this afternoon, has continued to gradually strengthen and expand the
past few hours.  This has become accompanied by 2-6+ mb 2-hourly
surface pressure rises developing across much of northeastern New
Mexico, with largest rises centered around Tucumcari at 01Z, and
spreading south-southeastward.  Strong to severe wind gusts have
increased at least a bit on the leading edge of the outflow, and
this may persist into/through the 04-06z time frame, particularly
across the South Plains around Lubbock, where inflow emanating from
a moist boundary layer along and north of a preceding wind shift is
likely to maintain vigorous thunderstorm development.

..Kerr/Kerr.. 08/01/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...

LAT...LON   34800190 33920076 32520077 32490191 32860299 33770379
            34160252 34800190

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH