Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
967 ACUS11 KWNS 162316 SWOMCD SPC MCD 162316 NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-170115- Mesoscale Discussion 2149 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0616 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 Areas affected...Central High Plains Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 162316Z - 170115Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated wind/hail is expected with convection across portions of the central High Plains early this evening. Severe thunderstorm watch is not expected. DISCUSSION...Southern influence of a northern High Plains short-wave trough appears to be aiding convection across extreme northeast CO into southwest NE. This activity is developing along a frontal zone where surface-based parcels have reached convective temperatures due to steep low-level lapse rates, especially across northeast CO. While convection along the front is becoming somewhat linear in nature, one notable supercell is lifting northeast across Kit Carson County CO and will soon spread into Cheyenne County KS. This storm has likely produced severe hail at times, along with gusty winds. Wind profiles remain favorable for supercell structures, but frontal convection may maintain more linear characteristics. Storm motions also favor this activity being slightly undercut by the surface front as the evening progresses. Until then, the greatest risk for severe hail/wind is with any pre frontal supercells, but these should remain isolated. At this time a severe thunderstorm watch is not currently anticipated. ..Darrow/Thompson.. 10/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD... LAT...LON 39300278 41670081 41390011 40130078 38820188 39300278 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN