482
ACUS11 KWNS 092148
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 092147
AZZ000-092345-

Mesoscale Discussion 1882
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0447 PM CDT Sun Aug 09 2026

Areas affected...Southern Arizona

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 092147Z - 092345Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will likely
spread across southern Arizona through the late afternoon/evening
hours. Watch issuance is not anticipated given the fairly modest
kinematic environment, though a few severe downbursts appear
possible.

DISCUSSION...Latest GOES imagery and lightning data show the onset
of deep convection both along the Mogollon Rim and within the higher
terrain of southern/southeast AZ. Although this activity has been
slow to move off the terrain so far, modest easterly flow through
much of the column, combined with cold-pool propagation, should
promote thunderstorms spreading westward over the next several
hours. As this occurs, convection will begin to impinge on a very
deeply mixed, but buoyant, air mass characterized by MLCAPE values
of around 500-1000 J/kg and 40-45 F dewpoint depressions (which
suggest LCL heights are around 3 to 3.5 km). This thermodynamic
profile is very conducive for accelerating downdrafts capable of
producing swaths of strong to severe winds (possibly as high as
55-70 mph) within the more intense downbursts.

Although a favorable thermodynamic environment is in place, the
observed wind profiles from regional VWPs show meager deep-layer
wind shear with 0-6 km BWD values of around 15 knots - somewhat
weaker than the 20-25 knots depicted by RAP mesoanalyses and recent
HRRR solutions. Consequently, the expectation is for sporadic strong
to severe downburst winds within poorly organized cells and clusters
through at least early evening. This activity should remain
sufficiently transient and isolated to preclude the need for a
watch.

..Moore/Mosier.. 08/09/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...

LAT...LON   34221182 33871089 33631037 33330996 33110976 32580974
            32000993 31681014 31421048 31351074 31371107 31471155
            31721234 32001296 32251317 32641331 33131330 33801302
            33991290 34171273 34271225 34221182

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH