606
ACUS11 KWNS 162150
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 162149
MOZ000-KSZ000-162315-

Mesoscale Discussion 1691
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0449 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

Areas affected...Northern Missouri into extreme northeast Kansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 162149Z - 162315Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorm development is expected along a
stalled boundary, with the potential for isolated strong-severe
gusts and marginally severe hail.  Limited magnitude and duration of
the threat suggests that a watch is unlikely.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm development is underway immediately east
of Kansas City, with other deepening cumulus along a stalled
boundary near I-70.  Surface temperatures in the low 90s with
dewpoints in the low-mid 70s have largely eliminated convective
inhibition and additional thunderstorm development is probable along
the boundary/convergence zone the next couple of hours.  This
corridor is along the southern fringe of 25-30 kt midlevel flow, and
deep-layer vertical shear is likewise modest and largely confined to
the immediate cool side of the boundary.  Still, large buoyancy
(MLCAPE in excess of 3000 J/kg) will support strong updrafts, while
precipitation loading and downdraft potential will support the
potential for isolated strong-severe outflow gusts.  The overall
severe threat is expected to remain marginal given limited storm
organization/duration, and a watch appears unlikely.

..Thompson/Hart.. 07/16/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...EAX...TOP...

LAT...LON   39039196 39159282 39169356 39139451 38979628 39009667
            39279674 39429639 39619492 39689425 39689336 39649291
            39579231 39529216 39449195 39279181 39039196

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN