912
ACUS11 KWNS 251907
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251907
NEZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-252130-

Mesoscale Discussion 0118
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0107 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2026

Areas affected...parts of southwestern Nebraska and adjacent
northeastern Colorado/southeastern Wyoming

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 251907Z - 252130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A few strong surface gusts in excess of 50 kt may
accompany otherwise weak thunderstorm activity overspreading the
region through 1-4 PM MST.

DISCUSSION...Near the southern periphery of a low-amplitude digging
short wave perturbation, lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates are in
the process of becoming quite steep near the Cheyenne Ridge
vicinity.  This is occurring in response to continuing insolation
and deep boundary-layer mixing, beneath strong west-northwesterly
flow which may include speeds increasing to 50+ kt as low as 700 mb
during the next couple of hours.

Despite boundary-layer moisture characterized by surface dew points
around 30F, forecast soundings suggest the development of up to a
few hundred J/kg of CAPE, which may maintain and perhaps support at
least some further intensification of ongoing upstream convective
development.   Some lightning is possible, but, more notably, this
low-topped convection probably will enhance the downward transfer of
the stronger momentum to the surface, before activity develops into
a more stable environment deeper into the the Great Plains.

..Kerr/Smith.. 02/25/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON   41680410 41740279 41540154 40729960 40240029 40590235
            41210409 41680410

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH