712
ACUS11 KWNS 150013
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 150012
VAZ000-MDZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-150145-

Mesoscale Discussion 1292
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0712 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Areas affected...parts of Maryland...northern Virginia...the
District of Columbia...and the eastern West Virginia Panhandle

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 150012Z - 150145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A few damaging gusts are possible this evening across
parts of Maryland, northern Virginia, the District of Columbia, and
the eastern West Virginia Panhandle. A watch is not anticipated.

DISCUSSION...Clusters of storms are ongoing across the eastern West
Virginia Panhandle and northern and eastern Virginia. Per ACARS
profiles from BWI and DCA, the atmosphere is very moist with poor
mid-level lapse rates. Additionally, regional VWPs indicate shear is
fairly weak (25 kts of 0-6 km bulk shear), though this may be enough
for some loosely organized multicell convection. Given the
thermodynamic environment, water loading in downdrafts may cause
some damaging gusts, particularly where storms have clustered and
precipitation mass is concentrated. There is a general
northwest-southeast gradient in CAPE in the region, though poor
low-level flow across this gradient suggests that convection will be
difficult to sustain with the loss of daytime heating. Because of
this and the expected sparse coverage of damaging gusts, a watch is
not anticipated.

..Supinie/Smith.. 06/15/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...

LAT...LON   39167881 39597858 39657800 39577675 39287602 38547577
            38007575 37697591 37427649 37507717 37837821 38207854
            38837880 39167881

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH