542
ACUS11 KWNS 231748
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231748
NMZ000-TXZ000-231915-

Mesoscale Discussion 2404
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1248 PM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026

Areas affected...Much of New Mexico and Portions of Far West Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 231748Z - 231915Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon
across the terrain of New Mexico. Strong vertical shear will support
thunderstorm organization, with the potential for very large hail
and damaging thunderstorm winds, and perhaps a tornado or two. A
Severe Thunderstorm Watch will likely be needed later this
afternoon.

DISCUSSION...A seasonably moist airmass remains in place across much
of the southern Rockies this afternoon, with surface dewpoints in
the mid to upper 50Fs across central and western New Mexico. Cloud
cover has been less than in previous days within the moist plume,
allowing for temperatures to warm quickly into the 60Fs north to
70Fs south. The result is a plume of increasing MUCAPE across the
area, with values currently in the 1000-1500 J/kg range.

The region is somewhat in between sources of larger-scale forcing
for ascent with a shortwave trough well downstream across the
northern Rockies and a secondary wave still developing upstream
across California. The result is that initiation will likely rely on
a combination of convective temperatures being reached and moist
upslope flow in favored topographical areas. Current expectation is
that initiation should increasingly occur over the next 1-2 hours
with a gradual ramp up in intensity through mid-afternoon.

Vertical shear on the order of 40-50 knots will support supercells
with the potential for very large hail and the occasional
severe/damaging thunderstorm outflow by mid afternoon. A tornado
cannot be ruled out given the moist environment and the potential
for supercells. However, modest low-level winds and predominantly
straight hodographs should limit the overall tornado potential
through the afternoon.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch will likely be needed within the next
1-2 hours to account for this evolving threat.

..Marsh/Thompson.. 10/23/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...

LAT...LON   31740819 32980871 34710894 35960862 36840802 36970674
            36920550 35630435 33620438 31850481 30740534 31600652
            31740819

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN