192
ACUS11 KWNS 142316
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 142315
TXZ000-150045-

Mesoscale Discussion 0077
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0515 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

Areas affected...Parts of the Middle Texas Coast and vicinity

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 142315Z - 150045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...The area is being monitored for locally higher severe
potential. The main concerns would be severe hail and locally
damaging gusts. The need for a watch is uncertain.

DISCUSSION...Convection is gradually increasing along/behind the
tail end of a composite outflow boundary/cold front moving toward
the Middle Texas Coast, with additional weak warm-advection-driven
development in the warm sector. As a robust midlevel jet impinges on
the area, a continued increase in development is expected during the
next couple hours. It is possible that storms continue to be focused
on the cool side of the outflow boundary/front, and remain slightly
elevated as they approach the coast. Nevertheless, the strengthening
large-scale ascent, around 60 kt of effective shear, and 1500 J/kg
MUCAPE may favor organized clusters and supercell structures --
posing a risk of severe hail and locally damaging gusts. It is
unclear if a targeted watch is needed, though trends are being
monitored.

..Weinman/Hart.. 02/14/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX...

LAT...LON   27809763 28079788 28429796 28749783 28969750 29089713
            29029684 28729649 28369646 27719703 27809763

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN