103
FXUS64 KMEG 151147 AAA
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Memphis TN
647 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 619 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be confined to areas
  along and north of I-40 on Tuesday, mainly in the afternoon
  hours to early evening hours.

- Hot and humid conditions will persist across the Mid-South
  through late week, with high temperatures generally in the low
  to mid 90s each day.

- There is medium to high chance (4/5) that heat indices will
  exceed 105 degrees on Wednesday and Thursday. Triple digit heat
  indices may persist into the upcoming weekend as well.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Tonight through next Monday)
Issued at 1140 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

A few weak isolated showers continue to translate northeast
through west TN at this hour. The latest RAP13 500mb analysis
shows upper level heights starting to build north into the region
over the past couple of hours.

An MCS, currently near the ArkLaTex, is progged to take a
northeast track into southeast Missouri overnight and potentially
clip portions of the Missouri Bootheel and west Tennessee by
sunup. This activity may redevelop in the afternoon hours,
generally along and north of I-40, as a weak shortwave pivots
through. NBM guidance is coming in quite bullish, generating 50 to
60 PoPs in the aforementioned area, while the 00Z HRRR shows much
less coverage (30 to 40 range). With some uncertainty still
remaining, opted to cap PoPs in the high chance range (~50%).

Heat indices will be close to 105F today, especially across the
Delta Region. However, high temperatures could be a little
overdone. Will continue to collaborate with surrounding offices on
the potential for a heat advisory.

Heat and humidity will increase across the Mid-South on Wednesday
and Thursday, as a 591 dam ridge builds into the region from the
southeast. As a result, high temperatures will climb into the mid
to upper 90s each afternoon. With high humidity in place, heat
indices will creep up into the triple digits each day and
potentially reach heat advisory criteria (105F). LREF
probabilities are still coming in below 30% for 105F heat indices
during this time period, however, the NBM continues to advertise
105F+ nearly areawide. Still too much uncertainty to issue any
heat products at this time. Will continue to use our messaging
channels to communicate the increased heat and humidity for now.

Excessive heat may continue on Friday for portions of the Mid-
South, as 594 dam heights remain over a sizable portion of the
Mid-South. A weak shortwave and associated front will move into
areas north of I-40 Friday afternoon and spawn showers and
thunderstorms. Mainly zonal flow will remain in place through the
weekend, keeping high temperatures in the lower 90s each day along
with 20 to 30 PoPs in the afternoon.

The extended forecast looks particularly hot, as a 594dam ridge
builds in across the Southern Mississippi Valley early next week.
The ENS is advertising a heat dome building across the region by
the middle of next week. If this solution holds, a heat wave could
be on the horizon.

AC3

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 645 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

KLZK VAD wind profiler showed 25KT southwesterly winds just off
the surface. This low level flow was likely fueling SHRA/TSRA
over north central AR, in advance of an upper level shortwave
trough over northwest AR. JBR will be on the eastern edge of this
activity through midmorning. Thereafter, coverage may contract.
GOES imagery was showing warming cloud tops at discussion time,
indicative of a weakening trend.

Confidence is limited with respect to afternoon TSRA coverage. Of
the Midsouth TAF sites, JBR will be best positioned for an
isolated storm or two. To the east and south, a gradually
strengthening upper ridge may preclude TSRA. A PROB30 for thunder
was retained for the MEM TAF in the mid/late afternoon. This may
be removed in a future update.

PWB

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1149 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

Fire weather concerns will remain nil as high heat and humidity
remain in place over the next week. Temperatures will trend
hotter Wednesday through Friday.

AC3

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...AC3
AVIATION...PWB