Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
000 FXUS64 KMEG 240417 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1117 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1116 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026 - Isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected today as a warm front lifts north, bringing a return to higher humidity. - Scattered showers and storms, potentially bringing heavy rain or gusty winds, are anticipated Saturday afternoon and evening as an upper-level system moves in from the northwest. - Dangerous, oppressive heat and humidity arrive Sunday. Temperatures will reach the upper 90s, with heat indices of 105 or greater expected daily through the middle of next week; practice heat safety and stay hydrated. && .DISCUSSION... (Tonight through next Thursday) Issued at 1116 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026 Current surface analysis shows a stationary front stretching from the ArkLaTex into central Mississippi and South Carolina, with a 1022 mb high over the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. Radar shows diminishing showers along the front, while dry conditions prevail elsewhere across the Mid-South. Water vapor imagery highlights broad eastern CONUS troughing and an Oklahoma Panhandle MCS, keeping the Mid-South in a northwest flow pattern. On Friday, the front will lift north as a warm front but is expected to stall near the MS/TN border through the evening, heavily influencing local convective potential. Remnants of the Oklahoma MCS will drift in from the northwest. While high- resolution models show potential for showers and isolated storms along and north of I-40, weak upper-level forcing and limited instability dampen confidence. The highest development potential remains along the stalled warm front in northern Mississippi. Convective activity increases Saturday with another approaching MCS. Impacts are most likely north of I-40; however, timing and evolution depend on a building subtropical ridge. If this ridge strengthens, it may act to suppress or deflect convective activity to the north and east of our region. As the warm front clears late Saturday morning, heat and humidity will build. West of the Mississippi River, heat indices may reach 105 degrees, necessitating a potential Heat Advisory if cloud cover remains limited. By early next week, the subtropical ridge centers over the Lower Mississippi Valley, initiating a multi-day period of extreme heat. Ensemble guidance (LREF/NBM) indicates high confidence in triple-digit temperatures and heat indices exceeding 105 degrees through mid-week. A significant, multi-day heat wave is becoming increasingly likely for the Mid-South. AC3 && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1116 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026 Probabilities for IFR CIG development over TUP tonight has increased to around 65 percent. The degree to which MVFR ceilings propagate north will depend on the precise positioning of a stalled frontal boundary. The latest thinking is that the front will remain draped along the TN/MS border, meaning reduced CIGs are not out of the question at MEM. For now, added a 3kft cloud deck at MEM to account for this uncertainty. The latest CAMs depict lingering showers moving into northeast AR around sunrise. However, confidence in this occurring is too low to warrant TAF mention. Instead, greater precipitation chances manifest Friday afternoon near TUP. Otherwise, expect winds to be light and generally out of the northeast. ANS && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1116 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026 Fire weather concerns remain minimal, as minimum relative humidity values are expected to stay above 40%. While isolated showers persist in northeast Mississippi today, precipitation coverage will increase across the Mid-South from Friday afternoon through Saturday. Dry conditions return Sunday, accompanied by building heat and humidity into early next week. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...AC3 AVIATION...ANS