Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
317 FXUS64 KMEG 031727 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1127 AM CST Mon Nov 3 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1127 AM CST Mon Nov 3 2025 - Near-normal temperatures through midweek will give way to a brief warm-up, pushing highs 5 to 10 degrees above normal for Thursday and Friday. - Two subsequent systems will bring periods of light rainfall Friday and again Saturday into Sunday. - Confidence in the exact timing and placement of the weekend rain system remains low due to model differences. && .DISCUSSION... (This afternoon through next Sunday) Issued at 1127 AM CST Mon Nov 3 2025 Surface analysis places a 1028mb high over the Mid-South with a 1013mb low just off the North Carolina coast. Aloft, a 593 dam ridge is centered over Texas with a developing trough over the Great Basin Region and an exiting trough over the Carolinas. Broad zonal flow will remain over the majority of the CONUS as the main jet stream sets up across the U.S. and Canadian border through midweek. This will translate to near normal temperatures across the Mid-South with readings mainly in the upper 60s and lows in the upper 40s and lower 50s. By midweek, a trough will develop across the Northern Plains and spawn a surface low and attendant cold front. Ahead of this system, weak return flow will set up across the Mid-South. Due to weak upper-level forcing, the front will move through the area without producing precipitation. Shortwave ridging will build in behind the system warming temperatures about 5 to 10 degrees above normal on Thursday and Friday. Highs will peak in the low to mid 70s each day with lows in the 50s. Another quick moving trough will develop to the lee side of the Rockies and bring another frontal system into the region on Friday. Modest return flow will yield low amounts of instability ahead of the front. Ensemble guidance remains lackluster, with only 20 to 30% joint probabilities of MUCAPE > 500 J/kg, MUCIN > -25 J/kg, and Bulk Wind Shear > 30 knots confined to areas along and south of I-40. Due to the quick moving nature of the system, only a small window of overlapping parameters will exist. Therefore, QPF amounts will remain low. A brief 18-24 hour window of dry conditions will exist before another successive system moves in Saturday afternoon and evening. Ensemble guidance is still struggling to resolve this system, showing significant differences in the timing and placement of key features. Nonetheless, expect another quick shot of wetting rainfall through early Sunday morning. The extended forecast features a broad trough deepening into the eastern CONUS with temperatures near climatology for this time of year. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1127 AM CST Mon Nov 3 2025 VFR conditions and light south/southwest winds will prevail through the TAF period. AEH && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1127 AM CST Mon Nov 3 2025 Expect a gradual warming trend through the end of the week. Minimum relative humidity values are expected to range between 40 to 50 percent through much of next week as temperatures rebound back into the 70s. A pair of cold fronts will move through the Mid-South Friday and then again this weekend, bringing wetting rain to the region. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...AC3 AVIATION...AEH