200
FXUS64 KMEG 291817
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
117 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1254 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025

- Elevated fire danger will persist through the weekend due to
  unseasonably dry air and existing drought conditions. Please
  exercise caution with any open flames.

- Expect a pleasant and dry Labor Day weekend with plenty of
  sunshine, low humidity, and comfortable temperatures.

- A pattern change next week will bring much-needed chances for rain
  Monday night into Wednesday, followed by a significant surge of
  unseasonably cool air.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Thursday)
Issued at 1254 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025

Sunny skies and light easterly winds are prevalent across the
region due to broad surface high pressure encompassing the
Mississippi Valley. Temperatures range from the lower to middle
80s with low humidity and mostly sunny skies. The primary
forecast challenge is the unseasonably dry air expected to linger
through the weekend.

Relative humidity values are already below NBM guidance and
trending closer to NBM 5th percentile values. The latest HREF
guidance places current RH values near the 25th percentile, which
gives the HREF the slightly higher accuracy. A blend of NBM5th
and HREF25th guidance was used for both today and tomorrow. This
effectively knocks relative humidity values down into the
30 percent range both days, with a good portion of west Tennessee
dipping into the 20 percent range. Due to dry antecedent
conditions, marked by D1 drought conditions and high KBDI values,
opted to go with a Fire Weather Notification to address both the
elevated fire danger and mention a lone burn ban in Crittenden
County, Arkansas.

Labor Day Weekend`s forecast remains stellar and largely
unchanged. Highs will be in the upper 80s and lower 90s each
afternoon and lows will be in the upper 50 and 60s each morning.

The long term forecast continues to slowly evolve each day as a
broad trough swallows the eastern CONUS early next week. LREF
guidance is now resolving a shortwave early next week ejecting out
of the Central Plains and into the Lower Mississippi Valley. This
wave will accelerate and deepen through the Mid-South through
midweek. Model guidance is now showing some modest moisture return
ahead of this feature, evidenced by southerly winds and mid 60s
dewpoints. As a result, PoPs have been markedly increased into the
chance range (30-50%) from the Monday night through Wednesday
morning timeframe. This is generally positive news, as much needed
wetting rainfall (1/10th of an inch) NMB probabilities are
trending upwards of 40% areawide with higher probabilities over W
Tennessee and NE Mississippi. Confidence is increasing that most
areas will see rain, but exact timing and amounts will become
clearer over the weekend.

Unseasonably cool conditions will return again towards the latter
half of the week as a deep trough dives south across the
Mississippi Valley and pushes a cold front through the Mid-South.
ENS and NAEFS ESAT tables rank 500mb heights nearly 3 standard
deviations below climatology for this time of year. This
translates to a 500mb height deficit of nearly 100 meters,
ushering in a remarkably cool airmass for early September. Early
NBM temperature forecasts show many locations falling into the
50s or upper 40s at night by late next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1254 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025

Overall, VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the
period at all sites, with a low potential (20-30 percent chance)
for MVFR visibilities at TUP late tonight. Confidence remains too
low to include any visibility reductions for TUP at this time.
Light winds will increase to east winds 5-7 kts today, then
become light tonight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1254 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025

Elevated fire danger will persist through the weekend as relative
humidity values drop to or below 30 percent across west
Tennessee, the Missouri Bootheel, and northeast Arkansas. High
temperatures will climb back into the upper 80s and lower 90s
each afternoon.

Confidence is increasing for wetting rain chances for the
majority of the area Monday night through the Wednesday morning
timeframe. Unseasonably cool and dry air will move back into the
region late week behind a cold front.

&&


.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...AC3
AVIATION...AEH