159
FXUS64 KMEG 142342 AAA
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Memphis TN
642 PM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 641 PM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026

- Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected
  again on Wednesday, bringing a localized risk for heavy
  rainfall and potential flooding.

- A warming trend is expected Friday into the weekend with highs
  in the low to mid 90s. Triple-digit heat indices are possible,
  mainly along and west of the Mississippi River, potentially
  requiring heat advisories for the Delta region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Monday)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026

A cutoff low near Meridian, MS, and a high-pressure ridge over
the Upper Mississippi Valley are driving an easterly flow across
the Mid-South. Expect persistent clouds, showers, and
thunderstorms through Wednesday. With precipitable water values
(PWATs) exceeding 2.0 inches, localized flash flooding is
possible, especially along and south of I-40. While a formal
flood watch isn`t needed, exercise caution near low-water
crossings and streams during afternoon/evening downpours.

Thursday`s forecast is trending wetter as the upper ridge weakens
and the low shifts west, establishing a weak northwest flow
aloft. Expect scattered, diurnal showers and thunderstorms (40-
60% probability) across the majority of the Mid-South.

Precipitation chances will decrease Friday through the weekend as
a subtropical ridge moves in, leading to hot and humid
conditions. Highs will reach the low-to-mid 90s. With heat
indices expected to hit 105 F or higher, particularly across the
Delta, heat advisories may be necessary.

Forecast confidence decreases for next week. While some models
suggest oppressive heat and humidity with isolated to scattered
storms, others indicate uncertainty regarding high temperatures
due to potential shifts in the subtropical ridge and northern
trough placement. Model spread remains significant (4-6 degrees),
making the early week temperature/heat forecast uncertain.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 641 PM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026

TSRA will gradually decrease in coverage through midevening, as
instability wanes. The possible exception would be TUP,  which
will be in a more direct path of any TSRA lifting northwest from
AL. This east-southeasterly moisture fetch will bring a chance of
a brief IFR CIG at MEM around sunrise.

Wednesday should be a near repeat of today, with VFR by 18Z
interrupted by occasional SHRA / TSRA in the afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026

Fire weather concerns are not anticipated this period as ample
moisture and wetting rain chances persist through at least
Thursday. Hot and humid conditions will build across the region
this weekend.

&&


.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...AC3
AVIATION...PWB