757
FXUS64 KMEG 172329
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
629 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 629 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

- Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue
  through the end of the work week. The greatest potential for
  severe weather will be Wednesday night as a cold front moves
  through the region. Otherwise, severe weather chances will
  remain limited mainly during the daytime hours each day with
  gusty winds and localized heavy rainfall as the main threats.

- Hot and humid conditions will develop late week, with heat
  indices above 100 degrees by Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Monday)
Issued at 218 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

GOES Water Vapor satellite places a mid-level trough axis
stretching from the Great Lakes region back through the Lower
Mississippi Valley. Today`s showers and thunderstorms have been
occurring mostly east of the Mississippi River where better
marginal lift has resided. Temperatures as of 1 PM CDT range from
the upper 70s to middle 80s.

Latest mesoanalysis indicates surface-based CAPE values between
2000-3000 J/kg, little if any shear, and poor mid-level lapse
rates. Precipitable water values remain high along and east of the
Mississippi River around 2 inches. The best chances for pulse-type
convection will be mostly east of the Mississippi River through
early evening where a strong thunderstorm or two containing
mainly gusty winds and localized heavy rainfall will be possible.
Any activity should weaken throughout the evening with the loss of
daytime heating and as the mid-level trough gradually moves out
northeast away from the area. There is a potential for some
isolated/scattered convection to develop towards midnight tonight
along and west of the Mississippi River but confidence remains low
at this time.

Short-term model trends indicate an MCS will develop tonight over
Kansas and Oklahoma and weaken as it enters western portions of
the Lower Mississippi Valley late tonight. This MCS is not
anticipated to affect the Mid-South overnight but may lay out
some outflow boundaries across the Mid-South to provide an
additional focus for late Wednesday convection. Another mid-level
trough and associated cold front will drop into the region late
Wednesday into early Thursday morning. At this time it appears the
greatest time for severe thunderstorms across the Mid-South will
be between 6 pm and 2 am when the best instability and shear will
be realized. Moderate to strong instability, moderately steep to
steep mid-level lapse rates, 0-6 km Bulk Shear averaging around 30
kts, and high precipitable water values around 2 inches will
favor multi-cell thunderstorms with damaging winds, large hail,
and localized heavy rainfall as the main threats. Model soundings
indicate instability may become more elevated as the night
progresses, resulting in the overall coverage of severe
thunderstorms decreasing with time.

Little has changed in the remainder of the forecast as long-term
models indicate an upper level ridge axis building from the
Southern Plains into the Ohio Valley into early next week.
Isolated to perhaps scattered showers and thunderstorms will be
possible daily during peak heating. Otherwise, hot and humid
weather is expected with temperatures rising into the lower to
middle 90s this weekend. These hot temperatures combined with the
high humidity may result in heat index values rising at or above
105 degrees this weekend. Heat Advisories will likely be needed
beginning during this time.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 629 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

Mostly VFR forecast with the potential for more showers and
storms. As of the start of this TAF issuance, most convection
currently resides in northeast MS and central TN. Some additional
convection is possible through 06z-07z as far west as the MS
River. A remnant MCS/MCV is expected to reach the region after
12z, with a low chance for some MVFR impacts at JBR/MEM.
Otherwise, VFR is expected until the end of the forecast with more
scattered thunderstorm development tomorrow evening.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 218 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

Light winds will persist through Wednesday. A cold front will move
through the area Wednesday night, bringing a greater potential for
showers and thunderstorms to the area. Hot and humid conditions
will arrive for Friday into the weekend as temperatures rise into
the lower to middle 90s.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...CJC
AVIATION...JAB