Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
413 FXUS64 KMEG 021203 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 703 AM CDT Tue Sep 2 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 659 AM CDT Tue Sep 2 2025 - Showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected across the Mid- South, mainly east of the Mississippi River, through Thursday morning. Widespread heavy rainfall is not anticipated, though any accumulation will be beneficial given ongoing drought conditions. - A drier and significantly cooler airmass with comfortable temperatures will settle into the region by Saturday evening, lasting into early next week && .DISCUSSION... (Tonight through next Monday) Issued at 1100 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025 A quiet night is in store for the Mid-South under light winds and mid to high level clouds filtering into the region. After a quiet night, Tuesday will bring the first chance of rain showers mainly east of the Mississippi River. An inverted trough will impinge from the east and muster up just enough moisture to support shower development. Torrential rainfall or large accumulations of rain are not expected due to several days of high pressure and an abundance of dry air. PW values are near the climatological norm (1-1.5") combined with widespread Abnormally Dry to Moderate Drought conditions, any accumulation amount is welcomed, but this certainly will not be a drought buster. Very weak upper level support keeps confidence on the lower side for thunderstorm development. A rumble of thunder or two cannot be ruled out, but widely light stratiform rain is expected. The aforementioned inverted trough may interact with any lingering outflow boundaries potentially leading to quick upscale growth. However, widespread strong to severe storms are unlikely. The trough will slowly rotate through the eastern side of the CWA keeping lingering rain chances in the forecast through Thursday morning. Peak PoPs (40-60%) are expected tomorrow afternoon through Wednesday morning, with coverage becoming more isolated and chances lowering to 20-40% thereafter. Despite a rise in PoPs, probabilities of half an inch of rain are only 30-60% stretching in a line from Jackson, TN to Oxford, MS and eastward. A dry, weak cold front will finally rotate that inverted trough out of the area and squash any lingering rain chances for the remainder of the work week. A reinforcing front will follow shortly behind it with higher chances of receiving rainfall Friday night into Saturday morning. Southerly flow will briefly return ahead of this front, which will increase moisture and raise probabilities of thunder. This front will cross quickly and we will settle into a cooler and drier regime by Saturday evening. These temperatures will be a few degrees below normal for early September with 50 degree dewpoints for a comfortable feel. We look to remain dry through early next week, but beyond then, model spread is large. The CPC monthly outlook for September has the Mid-South in equal chances of above or below normal temperatures and precipitation. Stay tuned for the next chance of beneficial rainfall. DNM && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 659 AM CDT Tue Sep 2 2025 Updated to include PROB30 TSRA for TUP this morning. Last few HRRR runs indicate a potential for sparse coverage TSRA in northeast MS, a westward extension of the isolated TSRA that occurred over northern AL earlier. In addition, AMD NOT SKED continues at TUP due to a comms outage at the ASOS. --- GOES water vapor imagery showed an upper level shortwave trough dropping east-southeast through AR at 1145Z. Scattered -SHRA was noted on regional radars in advance of the upper trough. After 18Z, the bulk of -SHRA potential will shift southeast of MEM, lingering a few hours at TUP. PWB && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 642 AM CDT Mon Sep 2 2025 Slightly higher relative humidity will partially moderate wildland fire danger east of the Mississippi over the next several days. Isolated light showers will be possible through Thursday, mainly east of the Mississippi River. Better wetting rain chances will arrive to the Midsouth late Friday, ahead of a cold front. Low daytime relative humidity will settle behind this front over the weekend and early next week. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...DNM AVIATION...PWB