551
FXUS64 KMEG 131749
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1249 PM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1247 PM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

- Midsummer-like heat will persist into at least the middle of
  next week. Little rainfall is expected during the next 7 days.

- A Heat Advisory is in effect for areas along and to the west of
  the Mississippi River  through 7 PM CDT Sunday. A Heat Advisory
  is in effect areawide from Monday at 11 AM CDT until Tuesday at
  7 PM CDT.  Expect heat indices between 105 and 110 degrees.

- Temperatures will likely moderate by the end of next weekend,
  returning closer to seasonal normals, with highs near 90
  degrees.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Saturday)
Issued at 1247 PM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

Upper ridging centered over the Red River Valley is gradually
building into the Mid-South. Weak northwest flow is in place
across the Mid-South. Satellite imagery and the RAP indicate an
MCV  over northern Arkansas this morning. This feature will track
into the Mid-South this afternoon and evening and interact with
an unstable airmass with MLCAPEs over 2000 J/kg. This will result
in isolated showers and thunderstorms. Hi-res models show sparse
coverage, but given the last couple of days and precipitable
water values still around 1.7 inches, it seems prudent to add
small pops to the forecast this afternoon. Agitated cu is already
noted from the Missouri Bootheel southward into north Mississippi.

The big story is the near-record/record heat that will prevail
well into the upcoming week as the upper ridge continues to build
over the region.  Temperatures are quickly climbing into the 90s
this morning, with dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s. Heat index
values are already topping 100 degrees in several places at noon.
There is a Heat Advisory in effect until 7 pm this evening. The
heat will intensify Monday and Tuesday as highs flirt with triple
digits over much of the area. Several record high temperatures
will likely be tied or broken over the next few days. An
additional Heat Advisory is in effect Monday through Tuesday for
heat index values above 105 degrees. A weak disturbance rotating
under the upper ridge that will be centered over the Mid-South on
Monday, will kick off isolated showers and thunderstorms across
parts of north Mississippi and east-central Arkansas Monday
afternoon. However, they will do little but provide very
localized relief from the heat.

Heat headlines will likely be extended into at least Wednesday.
Toward the end of the week, surface ridging over the Southeast
U.S. and associated southeasterly flow may introduce some lower
dewpoints. Temperatures will still be close to record highs
through at least Saturday, but with the humidity knocked down a
notch, heat index values will likely not reach 105 degrees.

A disturbance tracking across the Gulf late this week into next
weekend, combined with a trough moving through the center of the
country, may start to bring some heat relief by next Sunday. The
upper ridge will likely weaken, and the chance for showers and
thunderstorms should be on the increase by then, with
temperatures trending to more normal levels.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1247 PM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail throughout the 24-30 hour
TAF period under building upper-level high pressure. A weak upper-
level disturbance moving through the region this afternoon and
evening will trigger isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms. Given the higher confidence in convective
initiation, PROB30 groups remain in place at MEM and JBR.
Westerly winds around 5-6 kts this afternoon will become light
and variable overnight. Medium confidence exists for MVFR
visibility reductions due to fog development at MKL and TUP
overnight, with conditions improving to VFR around daybreak.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1247 PM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

There will be a potential for patchy fog tonight, particularly
over north Mississippi and West Tennessee. A warming trend will
begin to decrease minimum relative humidity values, with most of
the area expected to see values below 40%. This trend will
continue through much of next week while near-record heat
prevails throughout the region. Fortunately, 20-foot winds are
expected to be light, and afternoon 10-hour fuels are expected to
remain above 10%, which will keep fire danger to a minimum
through the period.

&&


.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ARZ009-018-026>028-
     035-036-048-049-058.

     Heat Advisory from 11 AM Monday to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for ARZ009-
     018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058.

MO...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MOZ113.

     Heat Advisory from 11 AM Monday to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for MOZ113-
     115.

MS...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ001-007-008-
     010>012-020.

     Heat Advisory from 11 AM Monday to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for
     MSZ001>017-020>024.

TN...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TNZ048-049-088.

     Heat Advisory from 11 AM Monday to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for
     TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...SJM
AVIATION...AC3