Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
302 FXUS64 KMEG 060400 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1100 PM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1100 PM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025 - Rain chances return to the forecast starting tomorrow and will last into Tuesday night. Locally heavy rainfall and a few thunderstorms are expected. - A cold front will pass Wednesday, bringing cooler temperatures into next weekend. Highs are expected to be in the mid 70s to the low 80s. && .DISCUSSION... (Tonight through next Sunday) Issued at 1100 PM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025 Clouds are beginning to increase across the area this evening. Temps are mild and dewpoints continue to creep up under weak southeast surface flow. The dry stretch that we have been experiencing across the Mid-South will be coming to an end shortly. A weak, yet moist, upper level system along the Gulf Coast is beginning to lift north this evening. Showers are pushing north from the Gulf Coast toward the Mid-South. Moisture will continue to surge overnight with PWs reaching 2 inches by early Monday morning. This system will result in numerous to widespread showers across the Mid-South on Monday. Instability will be marginal with MUCAPEs ranging from 250-750 J/kg which will support a few thunderstorms. The heavy rain threat looks to increase Monday night into Tuesday morning. A weak surface low pressure will move north through the Lower MS Valley and interact with an approaching cold front being pushed SE by a potent upper trough moving through the Great Lakes. An axis of locally heavy rain with will likely set up across eastern AR, the MO Bootheel and West TN. This area will have the best combination of lift, instability and moisture with PWs exceeding the 97.5th percentile. While rainfall amounts are expected to average 1-2 inches, isolated amounts of greater than 2 inches are likely where training storms occur. This will create a localized flash flooding threat. By Tuesday afternoon the front will start moving across the region. The instability ticks up on Tuesday, especially east of the MS River, so expect more showers and thunderstorms as the front pushes southeast. 0-6 km wind shear does increase a bit on Tuesday so will have watch whether a marginal severe storm threat develops. Precipitation chances will taper off Tuesday night. Cool high pressure will settle across the area Wednesday through Friday and continue into the weekend. Temps will be cooler with highs in the mid 70s to near 80 and lows in the 50s. Highs will gradually warm into the lower 80s during the weekend. Not seeing much in the way of significant precipitation into early next week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1100 PM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025 Not many changes from the previous cycle. Guidance continues to trend lower with cigs tomorrow. A disturbance moving north across the region will result in a prolonged period of shra beginning late tonight and continuing through the end of the 24/30 hour TAF cycle. Added VCTS at MEM, MKL and JBR for much of the afternoon hours. There does not appear to be much of a signal to narrow down a window for an increased chance for thunderstorms tomorrow, but a weak surface low may increase that risk after 00z tomorrow. Winds will remain southeasterly, generally 6-12kts. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1100 PM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025 Wetting rains will keep fire concerns low through the middle of the week with anywhere from 1 to 2 inches of rainfall expected across much of the region with the potential for locally higher rainfall totals. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...SJM AVIATION...JDS