Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
531 FXUS64 KMEG 011707 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1207 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1205 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025 - Expect a pleasant and dry Labor Day with plenty of sunshine. High temperatures will be generally around 90 degrees. - A pattern change this week will bring chances for rain Monday night into Wednesday, followed by a significant surge of unseasonably cool air into next weekend. && .DISCUSSION... (This afternoon through next Sunday) Issued at 1205 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025 Overall, a beautiful Labor Day is progressing across the Mid-South with temperatures spanning the upper 70s to low 80s. Dew point temperatures remain very comfortable for the beginning of September, with some additional clouds moving in currently across north Mississippi. Somewhat of an uncertain weather pattern will begin tonight through Thursday, with multiple chances for showers and some isolated thunderstorms over the next few days. We will remain in this weak, upper-level northwesterly flow regime through Thursday when a weak frontal boundary will finally push through the area. As such, do not expect for this to be a wash-out by any means for the Mid-South, but this pattern will keep at least a chance of PoPs (20 to 30%) from tonight through Thursday for portions of the area. The best chance (40 to 60%) does appear to be Tuesday afternoon and evening, mainly east of the Mississippi River. While there will be some instability, the lack of any true upper-level support or forcing will likely play spoiler to any storms intensifying. Total QPF amounts remain on the more limited side of things, with the highest totals across the eastern half of the area only reaching up to about half an inch. All in all though, expect for high temperatures to remain around to just below-normal through the period, generally in the mid to upper 80s with possibly a few locations reaching 90 degrees. By the weekend, another shot of "cooler" conditions looks likely with high temperatures returning to the 80s. These temperatures will be a few degrees below normal for early September, with dew point temperatures remaining in the manageable 50s. Dry weather looks to persist into at least the beginning of next week. Beyond that, forecast solutions begin to diverge but the overall trend appears to be dry conditions with just below-normal temperatures persisting. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 1205 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025 A midlevel cloud deck is making its way into the airspace, associated with the first of several disturbances that will bring isolated SHRA/TSRAs (though TS chances are pretty much negligible today) over the course of the next few days. There are some light returns on KNQA radar creeping toward MEM, but point soundings suggest the low levels are dry enough that we probably won`t see any precip at MEM until tomorrow. Even then, coverage is so spotty and PoPs are generally in the 20-30% range, which lends very little confidence to prevailing SHRA for pretty much any of the terminals. Ceilings are expected to remain well above VFR thresholds for the next 30 hours; this will likely be a scenario with a SCT Cu deck and a BKN or OVC cirrus deck. Winds will remain light and oscillate between northeasterly and southeasterly. CAD && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1205 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025 Dry conditions will prevail through midweek, with minRH values in the 30 to 40% range this afternoon and 40 to 50% range Tuesday and Wednesday. Some isolated showers could provide some brief respite to fire danger concerns through midweek, but some fire weather concerns will likely return by the end of the week. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...CMA AVIATION...CAD