992
FXUS64 KMEG 031155
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
555 AM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 553 AM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

- Strong non-thunderstorm winds will occur this morning through
  mid afternoon along and west of the Mississippi River.

- There is a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms Tuesday
  afternoon into late Tuesday evening across the majority of the
  Mid-South. Damaging winds is the primary threat, with a
  secondary threat for a brief tornado and localized heavy
  rainfall.

- A reinforcing cold front will arrive late this week with much
  cooler air expected by the weekend. Highs are anticipated to be
  in the 60s and lows in the upper 30s to 40s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Tonight through next Monday)
Issued at 1049 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

Severe thunderstorm chances return Tuesday afternoon as a low
pressure system pushes across the Mid Mississippi Valley. Ahead
of thunderstorm activity, the pressure gradient will tighten
across the forecast area. The strongest gradient winds will exist
west of the Mississippi River over northeast Arkansas and the
Missouri Bootheel. Sustained speeds of 25 mph with gusts nearing
40 mph are forecast. As such, a Wind Advisory will go into effect
at 8AM for the aforementioned areas.

A typical cool season severe weather setup will be in place by
Tuesday afternoon, characterized by bulk shear of 40 kts and
MUCAPE approaching 450 J/kg. The main environmental factors
storms will need to overcome for higher severe thresholds will be
meager lapse rates and persistent cloud cover. The most likely
scenario for Tuesday afternoon and evening is a messy line of
storms that primarily poses a damaging wind threat for areas
along and west of the Mississippi River. Looping hodographs and
decent low-level turning indicate potential for brief, spin-up
tornadoes embedded within the parent line of storms. As this
activity crosses the river, it will encounter less instability. A
few damaging wind gusts cannot be ruled out through the overnight
hours, but the primary severe weather window will be through late
evening. Thereafter, the threat transitions to more of a flooding
concern as precipitable water values approach the 99th
percentile. Storm total rainfall remains between one and two
inches.

Dry air will filter in behind Tuesday`s system with temperatures
remaining climatologically normal for early November. By the end
of the week, a shortwave will eject out of the Rockies. This
system will bring a cold front into the Mid-South on Friday.
Given the dry air in place, widespread rainfall is not
anticipated with FROPA. Instead, expect cooler temperatures
through the weekend as daily highs remain in the 60s with lows in
the 30s and 40s. There is potential for frost development both
Sunday and Monday mornings. However, since the Mid-South entered
the end of its growing season on November 1st, no frost headlines
are anticipated.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 553 AM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through mid-morning ahead of an
approaching upper-level low and cold front. Strong gradient winds
are expected to develop by late morning at KJBR and KMEM, with
gusts nearing 30 knots through mid-afternoon. The cold front will
cross all terminals from this afternoon into late evening,
bringing scattered to widespread thunderstorms; TEMPO groups have
been included for all sites to reflect the highest risk timing.
Following frontal passage, confidence is medium for post-frontal
MVFR/IFR ceilings building across KMEM, KMKL, and KTUP through
the end of the TAF period.

AC3

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1049 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

Widespread showers and thunderstorms will return to the forecast
by Tuesday afternoon, lasting into Wednesday morning. While
precipitation chances will dwindle thereafter, moisture will keep
minimum relative humidity values above 40%.

&&


.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Wind Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for ARZ009-018-026-
     028.

MO...Wind Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for MOZ113-115.

MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...ANS
AVIATION...AC3