061
FXUS64 KMEG 171139 AAA
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Memphis TN
639 AM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 623 AM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025

- Temperatures in the mid to upper 80s are anticipated through
  Saturday.

- A cold front will pass through the Mid-South Saturday night,
  bringing the threat of strong to severe storms. Damaging winds
  and localized flooding are the primary concerns.

- Temperatures will cool significantly Sunday and into the
  beginning of next week with highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s
  and lows in the 40s and 50s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Tonight through next Thursday)
Issued at 1117 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025

Synoptic patterns will begin to change today as large scale
troughing aids in the breakdown of an upper level ridge centered
over the Mid-South. A faint shortwave will traverse the region
today as the aforementioned ridge weakens, allowing surface winds
to veer southerly. Warm and moist air will funnel into the Mid-
South, resulting in noticeably warmer temperatures with highs in
the mid to upper 80s.

On Saturday, a large upper level trough and attendant cold front
will phase with a closed low over NM/TX. This interaction will
increase momentum to the east of the parent trough, allowing large
scale lift to form from the ArkLaTex to Mississippi River.
Overall, the severe weather parameter space will be defined by
decent kinematics and marginal thermodynamics. The best parameters
will overlap over the ArkLaTex, where plentiful CAPE is forecast.
For now, we anticipate a line of storms to approach the Mid-
South in the late afternoon / early evening hours. At this time,
CAPE values will be on the decline and lapse rates will fall below
6.5 C/km. Storms should weaken as they push east of the
Mississippi River. The main concern with Saturday`s storms will be
damaging winds and locally heavy rainfall. Luckily, the fast
moving nature of these storms will hamper any widespread flooding
issues.

Behind Saturday`s frontal passage, decent CAA will occur with
highs on Sunday in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Temperatures will
warm to the mid 70s on Monday before yet another cold front
impacts the Mid-South on Tuesday. Appreciable rainfall with this
boundary is looking less likely due to a lack of adequate moisture
return ahead of FROPA. Regardless, isolated showers remain
possible through Wednesday morning. Behind this front,
temperatures return to the upper 60s and lower 70s to end the work
week.

ANS

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 638 AM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025

VFR will prevail through the next 30 hours.

Surface winds will remain light but veer to a southerly direction
today, in advance of an approaching upper level trough. Above the
surface, southwesterly winds of 20-25KT will develop at FL020 at
JBR and MEM after 06Z. These winds will partially mix to the
surface after sunrise Saturday.

PWB

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1117 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025

Low fire danger is anticipated through the weekend as MinRH values
remain above 30 percent with light 20ft winds. Wetting rain
chances return Saturday ahead of a cold front. Behind this
boundary, MinRH will drop to around 30 percent.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...ANS
AVIATION...PWB