293
FXUS64 KMEG 272330 AAA
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Memphis TN
630 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 630 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025

- Clouds and scattered showers and thunderstorms will result in
  slightly cooler daytime temperatures over the weekend. Humid
  conditions will continue.

- Isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms will occur next
  week, as daytime temperatures undergo a gradual warming trend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Thursday)
Issued at 223 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025

A weak trough continues to eat away at the ridge which has been
parked over the southeastern CONUS for the past week.
Deamplification of the ridge will allow for temperatures to
moderate slightly as we move through the weekend. Heat indices
could still reach into the low 100s through this afternoon with
the Heat Advisory lasting through 9 PM CDT tonight. A few
thunderstorms are already ongoing in W TN and E AR. Convective
coverage should increase through the rest of the afternoon with
the potential for scattered hybrid microbursts with the strongest
storms. Storm motions are quite slow which could localized
flooding concerns.

Maximum heat indices continue to drop tomorrow and Sunday with the
majority of the region in the 95 - 100 F range. After coordination
with surrounding offices, the decision was made to not issue new
heat headlines tomorrow. With similar conditions on Sunday and
into next week, heat headlines are expected to not be a concern
through the rest of the period.

With the upper ridge flattened, storm chances will only continue
to increase tomorrow through the end of the period. PWATs will be
in the 1.75" - 2.00" range through Tuesday, promoting heavy rain
rates and more isolated potential for flash flooding. Alongside
the flooding potential, weak shear and ample instability will
allow for scattered microbursts capable of damaging winds during
this time frame.

A cold front is expected to approach the region Tuesday evening,
potentially making it as far south as MS. Not much in terms of
heat relief is expected with highs still in the upper 80s and low
90s with humid air still present. More afternoon thunderstorms
are likely with similar hazards to earlier storms in the period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 630PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025

Short range guidance consensus depicts slightly greater SHRA/TSRA
coverage Saturday afternoon, as the upper level ridge weakens.
Otherwise, a near-persistence weather pattern is expected through
Saturday evening.

PWB

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 223 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025

No fire weather concerns expected. Minimum relative humidity
values are expected to remain above 40% with 20 foot winds below
10 knots. Daily thunderstorms are expected each afternoon with
heat indices in the upper 90s and low 100s.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for ARZ009-018-026>028-
     035-036-048-049-058.

MO...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for MOZ113-115.

MS...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for MSZ001>017-020>024.

TN...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for TNZ001>004-019>022-
     048>055-088>092.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...JAB
AVIATION...PWB