199
FXUS64 KMEG 121608
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1108 AM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1105 AM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025

- Dry conditions will continue through the majority of the
  upcoming week.

- High temperatures will trend slightly warmer, reaching the mid
  80s by Wednesday.

- Rain chances pick back up to 40 to 50 percent by next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This afternoon through next Saturday)
Issued at 1105 AM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025

A midlevel ridge currently over the ArkLaTex has begun the process
of shifting eastward over the Lower MS River Valley. As it
continues doing so and further amplifies through midweek,
temperatures will be on a gradual warming trend to begin the work
week. Afternoon highs will end up in the mid 80s by Wednesday,
which is about 10 degrees above normal for mid October. This
prominent ridging will also keep PoPs below 10% through the
majority of the week. Despite little to no chance of
precipitation, winds will be light enough with just enough
moisture present to promote patchy fog development for the next
several mornings, especially for more rural and low-lying areas.

Moving into the weekend, the upper level pattern undergoes a
fairly quick deamplification, allowing a relatively deep trough to
cut through the ridging. A cold front associated with this trough
will eventually swing down from the northern Plains, as early as
Saturday afternoon. Current ensemble space shows that the GEFS
favors a faster and shallower trough (wet and unsettled weekend
but generally benign), while the ENS favors a slower and more
amplified trough (better chance for more active weather late
Saturday into Sunday). These two solutions pretty much balance
each other out in the LREF grand ensemble, but regardless, showers
and thunderstorms will be on the table at some point next
weekend. Initial long range joint probabilities of CAPE > 500 J/kg
and bulk shear > 30 kts are showing about a 40% chance of
favorable overlap for the Mid-South next weekend, particularly
Saturday evening. Still pretty far out to be narrowing down severe
weather details, but this system will be something to watch over
the coming days.

CAD

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1105 AM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025

VFR conditions continue, with generally light and variable winds.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1004 AM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025

Warm and dry weather continues through Friday. With afternoon
MinRHs hovering in the 35-45% range each day and no measurable
rainfall in the forecast this week, minor fire danger will be
present. Winds should be light enough to mitigate any significant
fire danger.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...CAD
AVIATION...CMA