448
FXUS64 KMEG 281751
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1251 PM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1250 PM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

- Seasonal temperatures and reduced humidity arrive by Wednesday,
  offering relief from the extreme heat.

- Higher rain chances return to the Mid-South late Friday and
  linger into Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Monday)
Issued at 1250 PM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

Midday temperatures across the Mid-South are 2-4 degrees warmer
than yesterday. Satellite imagery shows high clouds streaming
from the north, which may limit afternoon heating. However, as
temperatures already exceed yesterday`s readings, no significant
changes will be made to the afternoon package. Expect highs in
the upper 90s to near 100 degrees, with heat indices reaching
dangerous triple digits. An Extreme Heat Warning remains in
effect through 8 PM this evening for the entire Mid-South.

Most of the area will see relief from oppressive heat starting
Wednesday as a cold front traverses the region from northeast to
southwest. CAMs have been inconsistent regarding the spatial and
temporal distribution of precipitation associated with the front.
While latest guidance remains dry, the presence of a boundary and
dew points in the 70s may generate isolated showers. Although
temperatures will be slightly cooler area-wide, pooling dew
points ahead of the front could boost heat indices into the
triple digits again. Portions of the Delta, east Arkansas, and
northeast Mississippi may approach Heat Advisory criteria (105+
degrees) tomorrow.

From tomorrow through Friday, a 595+ dam ridge over the Rockies
will slowly shift east over the Plains while weakening slightly.
A deepening trough along the East Coast will result in
strengthening north to northwest flow across the middle and lower
Mississippi River Valley. A cold front associated with a strong
shortwave tracking across the Midwest will move into the Mid-
South late Friday or Saturday, providing the best chance for
widespread rainfall in the medium range. Guidance indicates a
surface low may develop in the Plains and track across the Middle
Mississippi River Valley by Saturday. Depending on its track, a
few stronger thunderstorms are possible late Friday into
Saturday. While the Storm Prediction Center has not yet
highlighted the Mid-South for severe weather, the situation bears
monitoring. Confidence in cooler temperatures through the weekend
remains high, with highs near or slightly below normal (generally
at or below 90 degrees) and lows in the upper 60s to middle 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1250 PM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

Mainly VFR conditions through the TAF period across the airspace.
Some models want to bring isolated to scattered -SHRA through the
airspace overnight into tomorrow morning, although uncertainty
remains. Covered the uncertainty mainly with PROB30s for JBR/MEM
and as VCSH for MKL/TUP. Otherwise, W/WNW winds will become more
N/NE near the end of the current TAF period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1250 PM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

No major fire danger concerns for the foreseeable future as minRH
values remain above 40% and 20ft winds stay below 10 mph.

&&


.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ009-018-
     026>028-035-036-048-049-058.

MO...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ113-115.

MS...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ001>017-
     020>024.

TN...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for TNZ001>004-
     019>022-048>055-088>092.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...JDS
AVIATION...CMA