452
FXUS64 KMEG 140448
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1148 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1141 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue through the
  weekend. The chances for severe thunderstorms appears limited,
  but strong winds and locally heavy rainfall will be possible.

- Hot and humid conditions will develop next week, with isolated
  to scattered daytime showers and thunderstorms continuing. Heat
  indices will prevail at or above 100 late next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Thursday)
Issued at 213 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

Active weather will remain in place across the Midsouth for much of
the next 7 days, along with near to above normal temperatures and
very humid air.

Afternoon satellite and radar data clearly show the slow moving mid-
level cyclone over SW Missouri. This feature will gradually advance
east toward the Ohio Valley over the next 12-24 hours. As it does
so, bands of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will
progress through the region, slowly moving toward the E/NE. The
accompanying airmass surrounding the low is characterized by
abundant moisture with PW values in excess of 2 inches in areas
along with aoa 35 kts of deep layer shear. The greatest coverage in
activity will coincide with peak diurnal heating and there could be
sufficient instability in place for a few storms to become strong to
possibly severe at times. Main concerns given the parameters in
place would be damaging wind gusts and locally heavy downpours.

In the coming days, mid-level weakness will remain in place from
portions of the Southern Plains into the Lower MS River Valley
between ridges across the SW and SE US. This will allow occasional
shortwaves to work their way into the area from NW to SE and with
each one will come the potential for additional showers and
thunderstorms. There could be some MCS potential as well, but for
the time being that threat looks a little greater to the west of the
forecast area.

By late week, while it doesn`t look completely dry, it appears that
H500 ridging will gradually fill across the area and begin to expand
northward. This would likely limit rain chances further and allow
temperatures to climb. Given Td values in the 70s F, heat indices
are likely to go above 100 at times. This will correspond to
frequent Heat Risk levels of moderate to major across the area.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1141 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to move across
mainly the southern half of the Mid-South overnight and into
Saturday morning. A second round of showers and thunderstorms is
expected to move across the region from late Saturday afternoon
into the early evening hours. VFR ceilings will start out the
forecast period with periods of MVFR ceilings around the
thunderstorms that develop. South winds at 5 to 10 knots overnight
shifting to the southwest by Saturday morning.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Occasional chances for showers and thunderstorms will remain in
the forecast for the next several days.Temperatures will increase
through next week as well.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...67
AVIATION...ARS