017
FXUS64 KMEG 260422
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1122 PM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1121 PM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026

- A dry weather pattern will persist into early next week with
  high temperatures mostly in the 80s.

- Rain shower chances return as early as Wednesday, with high
  temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Tonight through next Friday)
Issued at 1121 PM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026

The 00Z upper-air analysis showed an upper-level low located off
the Mid-Atlantic Coast, an upper-level trough off the West Coast,
with an upper-level ridge present in between these two features
across the Lower Mississippi Valley. This ridge resulted in dry
and pleasant conditions across the Mid-South with late evening
temperatures in the 70s. Confidence remains high for dry weather
through early next week and lower confidence in timing of rain
chances towards the latter half of next week.

This upper-level ridge will remain in place through early next
week, bringing a continuation of dry weather to the area. Highs
this weekend will be mostly in the 80s with a few locations in
east Arkansas and northwest Mississippi approaching 90 degrees.
Temperatures will fall back into the 50s and 60s at night. Lower
dewpoint air will mitigate overnight fog development and result
in comfortable afternoons despite the warm temperatures.

Latest ensemble and deterministic model runs indicate the upper-
level ridge will gradually break down towards the middle of next
week as a cutoff upper-level low develops near California and the
future remnants of Hurricane Polo consolidate and move towards
the Southern Plains and portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley.
NBM rain chances have decreased slightly as the ECMWF has been
trending a bit slower than the GFS and Canadian solutions. A
large spread in GEFS mid-level heights exists with subsequent
rain chances needing additional adjustments depending on the
eventual track of this low.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1121 PM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026

Patchy fog may develop at MKL towards sunrise, resulting in
temporary MVFR conditions. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected
to prevail at all sites through the period. Light north-
northeasterly winds are expected through the 6Z TAF period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1121 PM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026

An upper-level ridge located over the Lower Mississippi Valley
will continue to bring dry and warm conditions through the
weekend. Afternoon minimum relative humidity (RH) values will
hover between 35 to 45 percent on Saturday and as low as 25 to
30 percent on Sunday. However, light 20-foot surface winds under
10 mph, will mitigate any critical fire-spread conditions. Fog
potential will be light and localized, primarily restricted to
early morning patchy fog along low-lying river basins and lakes.

&&


.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...CJC
AVIATION...CJC