999
FXUS64 KMEG 061200
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
600 AM CST Sat Dec 6 2025

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 425 AM CST Sat Dec 6 2025

- Patchy dense fog will affect the Mid-South through late Saturday
  morning. A medium chance (50%) for widespread dense fog will
  occur Saturday night into Sunday morning.

- Temperatures will moderate through the weekend, warming to near normal
  highs in the 50s on Sunday.

- A cold front will pass through the Midsouth late Sunday, returning
  temperatures to below normal Monday. By Wednesday, we`ll be
  back to the 50s for high temperatures, ahead of a cold front
  late Thursday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 557 AM CST Sat Dec 6 2025

Dense fog has spread across portions of eastern Arkansas this
morning, evidenced by traffic webcams. Coordination with our
Arkansas neighbor led to a Dense Fog Advisory through 11AM this
morning. Hi-res guidance suggests that fog will worsen and
potentially spread for a couple hours before improving by late
morning.

The grids were updated to include fog through late morning across
the majority of the Mid-South.

AC3

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 1205 AM CST Sat Dec 6 2025

Upper air analysis this evening features a longwave trough axis
stretching from the Great Lakes Region back through the Southwest
United States with a ridge axis along the West Coast.
Temperatures are similar if not slightly warmer than Thursday
night with late evening temperatures in the 30s as cold air
advection and cloud cover has kept temperatures relatively
steady.

Little if any change is expected in the overall pattern as
northwest flow will persist across the eastern half of the U.S.
into next week with shortwave troughs rotating through the
Mississippi Valley. The first shortwave trough and associated
cold front will move through the Mid-South Sunday into Sunday
night and another trough by late next week. Both of these troughs
are expected to have limited precipitation mitigating the threat
of wintry precipitation, especially Sunday night over northwest
Tennessee as temperatures drop towards freezing. A couple of days
of colder temperatures will follow the mild temperatures with
each frontal passage.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 557 AM CST Sat Dec 6 2025

Patchy dense fog persists near all sites this morning under an
IFR deck. Hi-res guidance continues to advertise low CIGs and low
VSBYs through late morning with a low to medium chance of
worsening conditions for a couple of hours this morning.

A 30% chance for improvement in CIGs will occur later this
afternoon. Guidance is consistent with IFR/LIFR CIGs moving back
into all sites before midnight tonight. The dense fog signal
continues to increase (greater than 60% chance) for late tonight
as winds weaken and low level moisture gets locked in.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 425 AM CST Sat Dec 6 2025

Patchy dense fog will affect much of the Mid-South through late
morning. No fire weather concerns for the foreseeable future with
MinRH values remaining above 40%. Other than isolated to
scattered showers on Sunday, dry conditions are expected to
prevail through midweek.

&&


.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM CST this morning for ARZ027-028-
     035-036-048-049-058.

MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...CJC
AVIATION...AC3