653
FXUS64 KMEG 100517
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1117 PM CST Tue Dec 9 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1111 PM CST Tue Dec 9 2025

- Breezy and mild conditions are forecast for Wednesday. A Wind
Advisory may be needed for northern portions of the Mid-South on
Wednesday.

- Much colder temperatures are forecast from Saturday night
through Monday night. Apparent temperatures will drop to as low
as 10 degrees over northwest Tennessee and Missouri Bootheel
Sunday morning. Monday morning will likely bring the coldest
temperatures of the week, as calm winds settle in.

- Temperatures will warm up by the middle of next week,
approaching near normal by Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Tonight through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1111 PM CST Tue Dec 9 2025

Benign weather continues ahead of an approaching upper level low
and attendant cold front. Southerly flow ahead of the front has
allowed temperatures to warm into the upper 40s, with a few areas
squeaking into the 50s. The pressure gradient will tighten
further tomorrow ahead of the cold front for another breezy and
mild day. Probabilities of 40 mph wind gusts (Wind Advisory
Criteria) from the NBM generally range from 30-60% in
northeastern Arkansas, the Missouri Bootheel, and far northwest
Tennessee. Hi-res guidance is not quite as bullish for criteria
being met, so we are holding off on issuing a Wind Advisory with
this package, but one could be issued by morning.

The first of a series of cold fronts will cross tomorrow with
very little effect other than gusty winds. Thursday morning will
be chilly post frontal under northwest flow. Thursday morning
lows will be in the upper 20s and lower 30s. Temperatures could
be a bit warmer than that if any post-frontal stratus develops
and lingers. Return flow at the surface will allow temperatures
to rebound quickly Thursday afternoon before a reinforcing cold
front crosses on Friday night. The airmass behind Friday`s front
is of Arctic origin and cool weather will filter in. Strong
surface high pressure and a brisk northerly wind will bring quite
the chill to the Mid-South. Apparent temperatures are likely to
dip to around 10 degrees over far northeast Arkansas, the
Missouri Bootheel, and northwest Tennessee Sunday morning. The
coldest air temperatures will reside on Monday morning as a
perfect radiational cooling night looks to set up.

There is a chance (25-50%) of precipitation Saturday evening.
Current forecast indicates temperatures will be above freezing at
the onset of precipitation. We will need to monitor the timing of
precipitation as it does hover near the freezing mark after
midnight into Sunday morning. Temperatures will rebound as an
upper level ridge will center over the lower Mississippi Valley
by the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1111 PM CST Tue Dec 9 2025

Confidence is high (80-90%) for VFR conditions prevailing through
the 00Z TAF period. Main concern continues to be the elevated
winds aloft producing LLWS overnight. Latest KNQA VWP data
showing 2kft winds approaching 45 kts. We have continued LLWS
mention at all sites overnight as 2000ft SW winds will increase
to around 50 kts. Gusty south winds will veer W/NW with passage
of cold front and remain elevated into Wednesday, then becoming
light Wednesday evening.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1111 PM CST Tue Dec 9 2025

Strong southwesterly winds will continue through most of the day
Wednesday, filtering in moisture to raise minimum humidity levels
to 40 to 55 percent. This pattern will generally persist through
the rest of the week before an Arctic cold front passes on Friday
night.

&&


.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...DNM
AVIATION...CJC