164
FXUS64 KMEG 022347 AAA
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Memphis TN
647 PM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 646 PM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026

- Isolated light showers and periods of drizzle will occur
  tonight, behind a cold front that passed through the region
  Friday afternoon.

- The cold front may lift back north into northeast Mississippi on
  Saturday, with temperatures warming back into the 80s. The
  remainder of the Midsouth will see highs in the 70s on Saturday.
  A few showers will be possible Saturday, mainly south of I-40.

- Fair and mild weather will prevail Monday and Tuesday, with
  highs ranging from the mid 70s to lower 80s. Tuesday morning
  will likely see the coolest temperatures, with lows ranging from
  the upper 40s over parts of West Tennessee and the Missouri
  bootheel, to the lower 50s elsewhere.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Thursday)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026

Morning observations depict an expansive area of precipitation
over much of the Mid-South, particularly over eastern Arkansas,
the Missouri Bootheel, and West Tennessee. Along and west of the
Mississippi River, precipitation takes on more of a stratiform
appearance with forcing from the right entrance region of a 500 -
200 mb jet streak and subtle low-level convergence due to an
advancing front. To the east of the Mississippi, convection is
currently the predominant mode of precipitation as MUCAPE values
surge to between 500 - 1000 J/kg. Morning upper air data from LZK
shows a very moist atmosphere containing 2.3"+ PWATs. Therefore,
shallow convection will be capable of heavy rainfall and
localized flooding east of the Mississippi with light stratiform
precipitation elsewhere through tonight. Due to the large amount
of cloud cover and widespread precipitation, highs are expected
to remain in the 70s and 80s except for portions of northern
Mississippi where cloud cover will be minimal, leading to highs
in the low 90s.

A similar forecast is in the cards for tomorrow as the front
continues to slowly sag south through Tonight. However, the
majority of the upper dynamics that will aid Friday`s
precipitation will have left the region, leading to a lower
coverage of precipitation from the stratiform regime, which by
this point will exist over all but northern Mississippi. Northern
Mississippi on the other hand will still be able to generate
MUCAPE values of at least 1000 J/kg, kicking off another round of
thunderstorms through Saturday evening. Again, expect high
temperatures to remain close to the same as Friday in both space
and magnitude. Additional showers are possible Sunday over
northern Mississippi as a disturbance develops within the Gulf
and pushes more moisture inland. Again, expect heavy downpours to
be the primary impact from any precipitation.

Into Monday, the front will have made its way into central
Mississippi, erasing mentionable PoPs along with it. In its wake,
cooler and drier weather will filter into the region with
afternoon highs Monday and Tuesday in the middle to upper 70s.
Furthermore, lows are forecast to drop into the 50s and even into
the upper 40s across portions of West Tennessee starting Monday.
Similar forecasts are expected through Wednesday with a gradual
warming trend through the end of the week as post-frontal
advection wanes.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 635 PM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026

A surface cold front cleared TUP earlier this afternoon, leaving
all Midsouth TAF sites with N/NE surface winds around 10KT.
Through the evening and overnight, a steady stream of midlevel
clouds bearing -SHRA and boundary layer cooling will increase
relative humidity in the post-frontal airmass, with IFR CIGs a
good bet.

Conditions should improve to MVFR toward 18Z at Midsouth TAF
sites. Confidence in VFR for Saturday afternoon is limited at
this time, given persistent NE surface flow and expected strength
of the low level thermal inversion.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026

Widespread wetting rains and southerly moisture transport will
keep fuels humid and minimum relative humidity values above 40%
through this weekend. A front currently bisects the region from
southwest to northeast, which will continue to push south over
the next few days. South of the front, expect light, southerly 20-
foot winds with a northerly wind shift north of the boundary.
Drier conditions will take hold by Monday with relative humidity
values beginning to drop back below 40%, but wetting rains should
keep fuels humid enough to limit fire danger concerns.

&&


.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...JAB
AVIATION...PWB