101
FXUS64 KMEG 071653
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1153 AM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1152 AM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

- Lower humidity, although trending higher, will accompany highs
  in the mid to upper 90s through Thursday. Heat Advisories will
  return to portions of the Mid-South tomorrow.

- A cold front will bring increased rain chances late Thursday
  into Friday. Behind this front, highs will moderate to the low
  to mid 90s through next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This afternoon through next Sunday)
Issued at 1152 AM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

A slightly cooler, but noticeably drier air mass in the wake of
yesterday`s cold front will limit instability across the
Midsouth. As a result, we will not see the afternoon showers and
thunderstorms that were prevalent across much of the region
yesterday.

The break from oppressive heat will be short-lived. A strong
ridge currently over the Plains will shift over the Mississippi
and Ohio River Valleys Tuesday. The Bermuda High positioned along
the East Coast and relatively low pressure along the lee side of
the Rockies will set up a southerly flow along the Mississippi
River Valley early tomorrow. As a result, moisture levels will
trend higher, resulting in higher heat indices. Temperatures will
also tick up a degree or two as the ridge builds, resulting in
the return of 105+ degree heat indices across portions of the Mid-
South. A Heat Advisory has been issued for portions of southwest
Tennessee, east-central Arkansas, and northwest Mississippi
tomorrow, with an expansion of that area anticipated Wednesday. A
dry air mass will limit any precipitation across the Mid-South
through Wednesday.

The ridge over the Ohio and Mississippi River Valleys will weaken
and flatten out Wednesday.  Zonal flow will set up across the
northern and central plains, across the Great Lakes and Ohio
Valley. Late Wednesday into Thursday a trough associated with a
deep low over Canada will swing across the Great Lakes. An
attendant cold front will approach the Mid-South early Thursday.
Current WPC rainfall totals for this system do not look
impressive, but we can use every drop as drought conditions
worsen across the Mid-South. Details regarding exact rainfall
amounts and potential for any strong to severe storms will come
into better focus over the next couple of days, but overall
expect slightly cooler temperatures and at least a gambler`s
chance of rain Thursday and Friday. The weekend looks drier and
warmer as a ridge builds back in from the west.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1152 AM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

Elevated northerly winds will persist through midnight. By
sunrise, winds will veer south and remain around 5 kts. VFR
conditions are anticipated through the period.

ANS

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1152 AM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

A drier and slightly cooler airmass is in place this afternoon,
but will moderate over the next couple of days. Expect HR`s 30-
35% this afternoon. Relatively dry air will remain in place
through midweek but RH`s should trend a bit higher, generally 35-
45% tomorrow and Wednesday. 10-hr fuels remain low, but 20-ft
winds will remain well below 10 kts.

&&


.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for ARZ036-048-049-
     058.

MO...None.
MS...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for MSZ001-002-007-
     008-010>013-020-021.

TN...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for TNZ088-089.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...JDS
AVIATION...ANS