588
FXUS64 KMEG 180429
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1129 PM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1127 PM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025

- A cold front will pass through the Mid-South Saturday evening,
  bringing the threat of strong to severe storms. Damaging wind is
  the primary severe weather threat.

- Temperatures will cool significantly Sunday and into the
  beginning of next week with highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s
  and lows in the 40s and 50s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Tonight through next Friday)
Issued at 1054 PM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025

Surface low pressure pushing into TX/OK will phase with a broad
upper level trough today, ejecting a strong cold front towards the
Mid-South. Ahead of this boundary, efficient moisture transport
will allow dewpoints to reach the mid and upper 60s. Afternoon
temperatures will be well above average; in the mid to upper 80s.

Overall, the severe parameter space today will be defined by
decent kinematics and marginal thermodynamics. However, the Mid-
South sits slightly displaced from the best parameter space with
areas in northwest AR at the greatest risk of seeing severe storms
in the afternoon. As these storms push east across the natural
state, they will encounter waning lapse rates and CAPE. The latest
CAMs depict a line of storms entering eastern Arkansas around
sunset. Initially, these storms will pose a damaging wind
potential before weakening east of the Mississippi River. While
damaging winds can`t be ruled out overnight, a messy convective
mode with bowing segments may produce severe storms into the
overnight hours. By sunrise, expect storms to clear the region.
The good news: the backside of the aforementioned front will
feature highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s on Sunday. CAA will
continue into Sunday night, when lows fall into the 40s areawide.

Another frontal passage will occur on Tuesday as a large upper
level trough traverses the Great Lakes Region. Expect this FROPA
to remain mostly dry as moisture struggles to funnel back into the
Mid-South ahead of the boundary. Lows Wednesday morning will be
the coldest of the season with the latest NBM painting the upper
30s to low 40s across the Mid-South. The remainder of the work
week will be wonderful with afternoon highs in the 70s.

ANS

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1127 PM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025

VFR conditions will continue through the afternoon across the
airspace, with southerly/southwesterly winds picking up by
sunrise. Expect for winds upwards of 15 kts with gusts upwards of
25 kts by the afternoon. Line of TSRA will move through the
airspace likely in the 00Z to 06Z timeframe, although there are
still model differences. Drops and vis/cigs appear likely as this
line moves through the area, with winds becoming northwesterly
behind.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1054 PM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025

Low fire danger is anticipated through the weekend as MinRH values
remain above 30 percent with light 20ft winds. Wetting rain
chances return Saturday night along a cold front. Behind this
boundary, MinRH will drop to around 30 percent.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...ANS
AVIATION...CMA