420
FXUS64 KMEG 091133
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
533 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 533 AM CST Mon Dec 8 2025

- Temperatures will gradually warm each day with highs near
normal by Wednesday.

- Colder air will move into the Mid-South this weekend. Highs
both Saturday and Sunday will range from the mid 30s to mid 40s.

- Low chance (20-30%) for rain Saturday afternoon and night ahead
of the coldest air of the season.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Tonight through next Monday)
Issued at 1125 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025

00Z upper air analysis continues to show an upper-level ridge
along the West Coast of the United States while an upper-level
trough axis persists over the Central and Eastern U.S. Surface
analysis this evening places a 1026 mb surface high over the
Lower Mississippi Valley. GOES Night/Fog product shows low
stratus over North Mississippi beginning to show signs of
redeveloping back north overnight. Temperatures as of 9 PM CST
are predominantly in the 30s areawide.

A gradual warming trend is expected into Wednesday as the surface
high moves east and southerly winds return on the backside of
high pressure. Temperatures are expected to rise into the 40s for
Tuesday and into the 50s for Wednesday. This warmup will be short-
lived as another cold front will drop into the region Wednesday
afternoon into Wednesday night. This will bring a slight cool
down to the area for Thursday with the cooler air mass retreating
back north for Friday.

Long-range deterministic and ensemble solutions now indicate the
coldest air of the season will arrive across the Mid-South late
this weekend into early next week behind a strong arctic cold
front. Models have trended slightly warmer over the past 24-
48 hrs as the coldest air is expected to remain over portions of
the Upper Midwest, the Great Lakes region, and the Ohio Valley.
Ahead of this arctic cold front, there is a low chance (20-30%)
for overrunning precipitation to develop across the Mid-South
from Saturday afternoon into Saturday night. Most of this
precipitation is anticipated to fall as light rain with
confidence lower for light wintry precipitation as precipitation
departs and the coldest air arrives for late weekend into early
next week. Lows Sunday and Monday mornings will be mostly in the
20s, especially along and north of the TN/MS border. Highs on
Sunday will range from the 30s north to the lower 40s southeast.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 533 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025

The MVFR deck covering MEM and TUP continues to move slowly north
and has reached MKL. An increase in mixing by this afternoon will
help to clear out and break up the deck with VFR conditions expected
to return by mid-afternoon (moderate confidence). Light SSW winds
will increase and become gusty this afternoon, continuing into
tonight. There is high confidence that LLWS will increase
overnight ahead of an approaching cold front.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1125 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025

No fire weather concerns for the foreseeable future with MinRH
values remaining above 40%. Dry conditions and light 20ft winds
will continue through the remainder of the period.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...CJC
AVIATION...SJM