705
FXUS64 KMEG 031802
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1202 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1201 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

- Rain chances will slowly return on Thursday, with the highest
  chances across north Mississippi. There is a low chance (less
  than 15%) of light freezing rain across extreme northeast
  Mississippi early Thursday.

- A chance (less than 40%) of a light wintry mix is anticipated
  Thursday night into early Friday morning across northeast Arkansas,
  the Missouri Bootheel, and northwest Tennessee, mainly
  impacting bridges and elevated surfaces.

- Below normal temperatures will persist into next week with
  highs in the 40s and 50s and lows in the 20s and 30s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1201 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

Clouds are breaking up along the TN River and AL border and
across NE MS and SE West TN. We should continue to see
improvement in those aforementioned areas, while cloud cover
further north and west still looks fairly thick and unchanged.
HRRR is fairly aggressive at keeping clouds in through the night,
though the latest trends are resulting in some doubts.

Obviously, cloud cover will impact low temperatures tonight. We
used the HRRR as a starting point and dropped temps in eastern
sections where the cloud cover is showing signs of breaking up.
Some weak overrunning caused by a shortwave passing by to the
north could bring some light showers to north MS early Thursday.
Temps will be right around the freezing mark, so there is a low
chance (<15%) of light freezing rain for a couple of hours across
extreme NE MS. That first shot of precip will move out by mid-
morning followed quickly by the next more organized system.

A fast moving shortwave tracking from the Southern Plains will
initiate another round of overrunning starting late Thursday
afternoon continuing into Thursday night. Models are a bit all
over the place with just how far north the shield of
precipitation will stretch. Latest GFS and HRRR are trending more
south, with the ECMWF much further north, so uncertainty remains
high.  There is a less than 40% chance of a wintry mix Thursday
night across parts of NE AR, the MO Bootheel and NW TN. Forecast
soundings support a little light snow to start, mixing with and
changing to freezing rain. Amounts will be quite light. Where the
cold air is in place, QPF amounts are expected to be less than
0.05 inches, so we are not looking at significant impacts at this
point. Slippery bridges and elevated surfaces are the most likely
impacts. A more southerly precip shield shown by some solutions
would move the wintry mix further south, potentially into the
Memphis metro with locations along the KY/MO border not seeing
much of anything.

Precip will pull out early Friday with weak surface high pressure
prevailing and clouds lingering. Temps will be cool with highs in
the 40s. Generally, benign weather with below normal temperatures
will prevail this weekend into early next week under fast morning
W/NW zonal flow aloft with weak systems

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1201 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

Stratus continues to keep all terminals at the border of IFR and
MVFR. Satellite observations show erosion is underway across West
Tennessee and northeast Mississippi. TUP is already nearing BKN,
if not SCT, within the next couple of hours with a similar story
possible at MKL. However, JBR and MEM are expected to remain
BKN/OVC through this afternoon but will be monitored for any
short-term changes.

Forecast confidence decreases considerably after sunset and will
be dependent on the evolution of CIGs through the next 6 hours.
Model performance on cloud coverage and category has been poor
within our current pattern, adding and removing IFR/MVFR category
CIGs frequently. Therefore, I have opted to stick to a
persistence forecast given that the overall pattern is not
expected to change drastically in the next day. This would lead
to IFR/MVFR CIGs returning after sunset, lasting through the end
of the period as the TAFs show. Confidence in LIFR is too low to
include at any terminal at this time.

With the low predictability and quickly evolving nature of
impacts, expect changes to this forecast.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1201 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

No fire weather concerns for the foreseeable future with minRH
values remaining above 40%.

&&


.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...SJM
AVIATION...JAB